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Posts by "macrosam"

189 Posts Total by "macrosam":
184 Posts by member
macrosam
(United States)
5 Posts by Anonymous "macrosam":
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 13:17
In Thread: USD
50 day EMA on a daily timeframe, I'm showing 80.3517
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 13:17
In Thread: USD
It's arguable if this is a trendline break because the USD is still bouncing off the 50 day EMA which is slightly below a perfect trendline, but close enough to make one question if that trendline is indeed broken or not. If the 50 day EMA fails as support and subsequently acts as near-term resistance, then I will be convinced the uptrend is at a pause.

But there have been rumors that Bernanke would discuss the possibilty of removing the "extended period" language. These of course are unsubstantiated rumors but today is a huge day in terms of CPI and Bernanke speak. I am hyped!

macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 14, 2010 5:28
In Thread: EUR
Just to contribute, here are the critical rules I have in place:

1) Take your profits. Take them, do not lose them. Take them. Set a target and if it gets hit, take your profits.

2) Set a clear defined trade objective. Clearly identify what bet it is you are making, and if it succeeds, take profits. If the bet is not developing in the manner you envisioned, close out that position as soon as possible. This also encourages that one specify their entry and exit more precisely than otherwise would be done. I've found that when one is willing to say that they are ready to take a 150 pip move against them, that they have failed to set a stop loss 100 - 120 pips earlier and that this wide stop is the result of failure to plan accordingly Why would anyone need to set a stop as wide as 100 - 150 pips? Because of poor entry and planning.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 12, 2010 22:02
In Thread: EUR
I like your analysis, catnip.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 12, 2010 21:36
In Thread: EUR
In that area, yes. I don't want to overstay my welcome as we're also sitting on what should be fairly good support in prior highs (in the downtrend). This could also be a two-day symmetrical triangle with a breakout possibly above into R2, where many stops and short covering may be triggered, though it could also break downwards to my target area.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 12, 2010 21:26
In Thread: EUR
Correction: 1.36000 is R2, not R1.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 12, 2010 21:26
In Thread: EUR
Going short at 1.3590 with a reasonably tight stop slightly above 1.3600, making the beat that R1 holds as it has been all of today (pop 150 pip gap from yesterday, that is). Also doing this considering that once EUR/USD could only briefly stay under its 50day EMA yesterday and that once it retested it, it failed substantially. Coupled with this the US Dollar maintaining its uptrendline from November 2009 in addition to trading above its 50day EMA all day today (like EUR/USD, briefly failed this level due to yesterday's squeeze).

Tight stop, very specific play in mind, looking for 1.3500 and below if this holds. If not, I'm out less than 30 pips.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 14:37
In Thread: EUR
I agree on GBP/EUR and GBP/USD. I suspect you are also correct on EUR/USD but I have to stay in this trade until the trendline is proven to be broken.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 13:39
In Thread: EUR
If that occurs, then I will cover very quickly and may switch to a long. I am establishing a plan at this moment should the trendline fail.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 13:25
In Thread: EUR
I agree, Ashraf. All I've really been doing is mining the down trendline with sell orders waiting to be lifted.