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189 Posts Total by "macrosam":
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macrosam
(United States)
5 Posts by Anonymous "macrosam":
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macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 13:35
In Thread: EUR
US yield curve steepening, selling off 1-3 bps across the curve, higher 10yr rates, next week we have more back end supply (10s, 30s) could add more pressure on rates, aiding the 10yr UST-Bund spread analysis of Ashraf's
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 13:30
In Thread: EUR
+162K vs +184K expected
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 13:14
In Thread: EUR
I see the 3m 3/10 ticking upward and I see the EUR/USD still trading above the pivot point of 1.3541. I will not add to shorts while this still trades above the pivot. Could possibly run up to 1.3622 on a knee jerk reaction to NFP but would expect it to be resistance.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 13:08
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
El Shaer, your risk management and position sizing decisions are your own to make. Until you accept this responsibilty and embrace its mastery, you will be susceptible to these moves unless your entry and timing are immaculate. Ashraf is a blessing to us traders because of his insight and willingness to share; he is a teacher and someone we can gain knowledge from.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 12:59
In Thread: GBP
@ speculator: I am concerned with GBP vs. EUR and think this can keep GBP somewhat afloat as the short GBP/EUR cover. UK growth surprising to the upside, which is very possible (higher GDP revisions), the chart of GBP/EUR looks like a symmetrical triangle with a possibility of testing upper resistance (currently testing resistance level now), the change in market forecast dividend payouts in the FTSE and Eurostoxx for 2012 (FTSE payouts have risen by 10% relative to Eurostoxx). Rates don't favor the GBP vs. EUR so from a carry perspective this works against GBP.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 10:44
In Thread: GBP
1.56 - 1.57 is unlikely, just pointing out what I see as the next trendline resistance now that the 2-month down trendline was broken. However, I still like Ashraf's 1.53 resistance level better as that must first be broken. The recent runs in GBP and EUR are great examples of why entries and stops are so critical. I do believe we will see 1.45 and 1.32 in GBP/USD and EUR/USD respectively but the timing of when to enter can (and has) shake you out of an othewise great trade.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 19:02
In Thread: EUR
I'm thrilled to read that, Ashraf because I am still short!

I do think that we can see a large back up in US rates with the combination of NFP and next week's US treasury supply in the back end (10s, 30s). 10yr rates can get crushed and this would complement Ashraf's 10yr Bund/UST analysis.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 17:47
In Thread: EUR
1.3785 was support in June 2009 that led to the extended rally and first trendline that I started to follow. It is also prior resistance (along with the down trend line) and if the trend line breaks here, I would expect it to be retested. This is just my modest analysis, nothing complicated.
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 16:30
In Thread: EUR
Down trendline being challenged. If it breaks, I am out and will wait for 1.38 before attempting another short but if this holds....
macrosam
United States
Posts: 190
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 16:02
In Thread: GBP
No real conviction to short GBP/USD until the 1.56 - 1.57 area, thinking that second down trendline started from Nov 2009's high will be what holds now that this more recent downtrendline that originated in January 2010 has been broken.
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