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Posts by "macrosam"
189 Posts Total by "macrosam":
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Posts by Anonymous "macrosam":
We may hang in there today but I expect the road to 1.16 to resume after today (assuming the pinning will hold).
By Nichola Saminather
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Australian house prices grew at a
slower pace in the first quarter from the last three months of
2009 as the central banks five rate increases since September
took effect, Australian Property Monitors said.
GGB 2yr yield at 14.99%. Still too cheap.
1) Any bailout package has to be led by the IMF, but must include EU participation as well. This creates a very difficult proposition, in my opinion. The IMF will come in senior to the EU, which will be a tough sell, assuming the EU can even participate legally in any form of bailout, IMF led or not.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7591027/Greek-aid-in-doubt-as-German-professors-prepare-court-challenge.html
The EU part of the bailout is not yet ready, assuming it will ever be ready.
2) The U.S. has veto power at the IMF and will likely not allow a bailout until the EU portion is committed. See #1 above. The U.S. will see the responsibility of assisting Greece as being the EU's.
3) Even if #1 and #2 occur, the IMF will likely impose harsher austerity measures on Greece than the ones currently in place. See Latvia (2009). Greece will resist even more than they already are now.
4) The May 19 deadlines does not address CURRENT nor does it address future bills. It is to repay money already spent. The realization of this will set in even deeper the closer we approach and the more difficult bailout coordination becomes.
Enough of these monkey shines.