Posts by "montmorency"

Debate, LibDems, Nick Clegg etc.: I believe that Nick Clegg has said repeatedly that the LibDems would not enter into any formal coalition with either of the two main parties. Instead they would treat everything on an issue by issue basis, supporting those they agreed with, opposing those they disagreed with. It is true they are likely to agree with more Labour moves than Conservative, but not all. Politically, this is not such a bad idea, but I could see that the market may view it as just more uncertainty, and hence weigh on the GBP. On the other hand, when faced with the actual reality, the LibDems may change their mind and join a coalition after all - never say never :-) .

Some interesting comments below this article:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7587972/Greece-still-at-risk-of-debt-spiral-says-George-Soros.html

FWIW I'm short both cable and EUR/USD, small positions, low leverage.
I think cable could easily range between say 1.56 and 1.50 for a bit longer, before it does anything much more dramatic. Not sure if it'll go much below 1.50 in the short term, unless there is great uncertainty following the election or some serious bad news. In Europe I think the Greek (etc) tragedy will continue to play out.

Who knows what George Soros is up to; he's a clever fellow, although I don't think his public utterings are necessarily any indication of how he (or his minions) are trading, or indeed how ordinary mortals should trade :-)

@Asad: Re: Mr Vermeulen: Yes, but not before a pullback or pause:

"As for the current price of gold, I think we are about to see lower prices, or at least a pause, which will last for 5-15 days.".

Actually, that's exactly what we've had / are having really isn't.


Israel/Iran: Oh dear, I really hope not. I think it would have an effect on more than just the price of oil :-(

@Catnip: When/where did you start shorting from, if I may ask?