Posts by "montmorency"

Well you could in a way say that by now all the uncertainty regarding the election has already been "priced in" (whatever that really means) by the market.

However, there is genuine disagreement between the two major parties over what to do about the deficit. The Conservatives are seen as hawkish deficit cutters and spending cutters. The ("New") Labour party are seen as spendthrift deficit spenders. Whichever side wins (if there is a decisive win) is going to have serious difficulties one way or another. If there is a hung parliament (unlikely, but possible) then that is another level of uncertainty, since we haven't had one of those for over thirty years and no one is quite sure how it would play out. I'm guessing that the pound could get quite volatile over the next few weeks, or if not then in the weeks following the election.

I'm not much of a technician (as mentioned several times), but that trend line looks kind of broken doesn't it?

[This thread copied over from the "EUR" thread - it seems more relevant here than there]:

Fascinating discussion taking place .... may I humbly suggest it be continued on the "Trading" thread here?

But to respond to a few points:

@Rrose: I'll take your word for it. So, assuming he predicted Friday's upmove, did you see it in time and did you make money from trading it?

Crowd Psychology/ Mass psychology: I have seen it claimed that TA "works" because it is supposed to (somehow) represent the mass psychology at work in the market. However, I don't know how this can be proved. Has anyone done any research to try to prove it? If it is unproven, I don't know how this can be stated confidently (although you see it stated all the time).

@Catnip: I assume you are talking about mathematical models. Interesting idea. Hard to do in practice, I would have thought. I suppose that the "wave" of the EW is like a kind of whiplash responding to the pulse of the "signal"? I agree with you that the markets are interconnected (that is after all the basis of this site, I would have thought) so it is a bit pointless trying to analyse one market in isolation. On the other hand it seems quite difficult to analyse them all together.

And economists can't even predict the economy correctly. Yes, I hear what you are saying Shane, but, e.g. Friday's moves and the post-weekend gap up were a direct result of a political-economic event, i.e. a fundamentals event (or at least the market's reaction to that event).

I am at best agnostic about most forms of TA, but I agree with Ashraf that EUR has not bottomed yet and we might yet see 1.32-ish again, if not lower.

I notice that gold has fallen somewhat as I write. Congrats to anyone who had the guts to short it at ~1169.