Posts by "montmorency"

There are many ways of playing stops (including not having any - low leverage is the key there).

I don't believe in such a thing as a solid resistance (or a solid support). They work until they don't, and ardent technical analysts only tend to remember the times they worked.

@Amg: nothing (well, almost nothing) surprises me about cable, so yes, a nasty move is always possible. But traders thrive on movement of course, so let's see what it's got.

Another great gold story athttp://kingworldnews.com

Look for the Harvey & Lenny Organ & Adrian Douglas story on Wednesday, April 7, 2010.

It is almost impossible to believe, except that with all the banking shenanigans of the last 2 years or more, when you think about it, it's exactly what you'd expect.

There is an interesting video now on Cantos with Chris Watling from Longview, talking about the impact of the election on the markets. Essentially he believes the election is neutral for the stock market, because most earnings are from overseas.

The impacts will be on gilts and sterling.

A hung parliament or narrow Labour victory would be sterling-negative and gilt-negative.
A Conservative victory would be sterling and gilt positive
[That is all according to Chris Watling, not me! :-) ].

[The rest is my opinion :-) ]:-

It is really hard to judge the result of the election at this stage. Narrow Tory lead in the polls (which are themselves divergent....expect them to converge in the next 4 weeks, one way or another). I think a hung parliament, a narrow Labour win, or a narrow Conservative win are all approximately equally likely! Voters are incredibly fed up with MPs at the moment (expenses scandal), and not terribly pleased with the government (lobbying scandal among other things), but yet not terribly convinced by the Conservatives. The LibDems may gain from all this, especially as their shadow Chancellor, Vince Cable, correctly judged the extent of the financial meltdown way back when (not that he necessary is any better at coming up with solutions). Of course the LibDems cannot win, but they could have a lot of influence in the event of a hung parliament, although they have ruled out taking part in a former coalition. Against them is that their leader, Nick Clegg, is relatively unknown, and not a very impressive speaker.




Personally I have continued doing what I've been doing for the last couple of months or so: selling every rally of GBP/USD and EUR/USD, and taking relatively modest profits (~50 pips, sometimes more, but it all adds up). This is not trading advice. Your mileage may vary; markets can go down, sideways, as well as up :-)

Sure equities will crash ... mind you, I've been saying that for about 2 months now ... :)

Some old names reappearing....now we just need PippedOff to re-emerge from behind the curtain...

Not looking much at crude (Brent or otherwise), but observing gold with some interest...

Leaving aside the question of SNB interventions, can anyone tell me the fundamentals behind the general strength of the CHF? Of course in the recent Eurozone climate, it is no surprise that against the EUR, the CHF would be strong, but I mean over the longer term.

What does the CHF have going for it?