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Posts by "montmorency"

678 Posts Total by "montmorency":
604 Posts by member
montmorency
(Abingdon, United Kingdom)
74 Posts by Anonymous "montmorency":
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 25, 2010 14:43
In Thread: GBP
@AVG: If you aren't in already, might be an idea to wait & see if it gets a bit higher first.
FWIW, I'm already in short, but I'm prepared to wait it out with a long stop if necessary (and add at a higher level, but that's just me). For real-time help from Ashraf you might try Tweeting him, although he might not have time to reply.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 25, 2010 12:01
In Thread: GBP
Well ~100 pip loss since midnight (GMT) isn't bad, plus a dip down to 1.5270.
@Spec, have to hand it to you, 1.52 does not look ambitious now.
It will be interesting to see how high it bounces now.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 25, 2010 11:19
"Just fundamentals". LOL! Fundamentals and a degree of intermarket analysis that you won't find on any other site, certainly no free ones. And for a very modest sum one can goa bit deeper with his book and online workbook, and the seminars. Ashraf provides the information and expert analysis, then it is up to each individial trader to trade it how he or she wants. As he often says, he has no idea of each individual's appetite for personal risk, so it would be a bit silly to quote risk:reward ratios etc. Risk:reward, as normally described or defined, is a pretty slippery concept in any case, in my humble opinion. Actually there are often some fairly precise calls in the Tweets, often astonishingly accurate. Sometimes they are less precise; ultimately we all have to use our own judgment and take responsibility for our own trading decisions. There are loads of sites out there where you can agonise over indicators and entry points and exit points and expectations and systems and all that other stuff that is more likely to confuse you than make any money. Those sites may possibly be great in talking about and describing _how_ the market moves. On this site we get to see and discuss _why_ the market moves.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 24, 2010 22:58
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 24, 2010 22:47
In Thread: CHF
@Pipped: Well, see the chart for yesterday. On my own chart it seemed to start at 0400 GMT and get going 0500 GMT.

However, I don't think they are quite that predictable. I've seen it happen in the afternoon (GMT).
I think it used to be said that Thursday was a probably day, but we've just seen it on a Tuesday (if it really was them), so I don't know how much to go by that.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 24, 2010 20:58
@Rob: Could be that they never actually intervene, but just quietly let it be known that they might. Speculators pile in and buy on the expectation, and it becomes self-fulfilling, and rises. This might be enough to slow down the fall, which might be enough for their purposes :-)
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 24, 2010 17:38
In Thread: GBP
@Spec: 1.52 by March 1 is pretty ambitious. Still perhaps no more so than Ashraf's target of 1.32 for Euro, which looked ambitious not so long ago, as did 1.34, and we've been almost within easy jumping distance of 1.34 already, so ...

Is that 1.52 on technical grounds? Trendlines? Other?
Thank you.

montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 24, 2010 17:32
Ashraf tweeted a link to this Zerohedge article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/full-bernanke-testimony-0

The best part of those articles I find are the comments underneath.
This one creased me up:

"Letting Rep.Waters (C-Dumo.) ask questions of Dr. Bernanke is like opting to have a corpse from an English murder mystery perform open heart surgery on an expired organ donor."

I think it would be fair to say that they have their own agenda over there :-)

Interesting to read the full Bernanke text actually, if one has the patience.

montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 24, 2010 17:24
In Thread: CHF
@Chloe: I'm no expert on this believe me, but I have an order in to close at 1.4670. 1.4675 might be ok too :-)

@Cool: That is also a reasonable interpretation :-) (Wait till they have intervened, and then sell...for example).
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Feb 24, 2010 16:34
In Thread: CHF
Newbie: What he is saying is that as the CHF appreciates against the Euro (as it seems to have a tendency to do), when it gets down to a certain point, the SNB are likely to intervene to get it back up, since they don't want it to be too strong and discourage exports, etc. You can see the spikes clearly if you look back.

If you position yourself when it gets down to these levels, you can make money.
I have only managed it a couple of times, but if you are observant and patient, I am sure it could be another of Ashraf's "gifts that keep on giving"! :-)

Beware though, I think a little while back, SNB indicated or hinted it wasn't going to intervene any more, so if you depended too much on this you could get caught. However, it looks like they have decided to start doing it again.

Look carefully at the chart and you should be able to pick out approximately where they are likely to intervene. There are no guarantees here mind. It may be a gift, but it's only handed out to the crafty :-) Allow yourself a little leeway both in entry and take profit; i.e. don't try to take the whole move, just take a bit of it.