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Posts by "montmorency"

678 Posts Total by "montmorency":
604 Posts by member
montmorency
(Abingdon, United Kingdom)
74 Posts by Anonymous "montmorency":
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 28, 2010 19:17
My strategy is to stick with my basic sentiment and if I can't trade that way to stay out. Don't always manage it though. This is why I'd _rather_ be long Gold and AUD, and EUR, but in the present circumstances, that won't wash. Longer term I'd be short USD, and long EUR and the commodities, but the time doesn't seem right yet, and maybe not for a good while. I think cable is always going to be a bit of a wild card though. Cable, EUR/USD and EUR/GBP - the mnage trois of the currency world :-)

montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 28, 2010 18:33
Bad luck @Chloe. Well I bailed out of my Gold short around 1086 .... and it carried on down to ~1073 *weep*. +ve pips, but not as many as it could have been! Still, it's impossible to get every pip out of a run except by sheer luck, IMHO. As one old trader I read about said "don't be greedy...leave some on the table for the other feller..." (or gal, of course). I think there is a lot of truth in that.


@Gunjack: Not in my very humble opinion, but I'll tell you, my stops are _well_ above 1.63 just in case.


montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 28, 2010 14:41
[Gols=Gold of course]
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 28, 2010 14:40
LOL - Gols is about the only thing I've done right recently (sort of, kind of)...shorted from the mid-ish 1090s.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 28, 2010 13:39
EUR:GPB - From Ashraf's Twitter home (reply to someone):

"we can even do 0.85 in $EURGBP as 1.38 EURUSD is question of when (not if). selling euro has been relatvly effortless".

Makes my long look a bit silly, but still, we'll see how it does below 0.86.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 28, 2010 11:35
@Chloe: I think he tweeted that it's capped at 1.6280 or so.

Anyway, well done. I left an order in for 1.6223 before I went to sleep, not thinking it would even get that high really. LOL. If I'd been awake I could have taken profit manually, but my TP was too long, and then it went skywards again. Still, I'm reasonably happy to wait for it. Remember that Ashraf has pointed out that cable gains in the morning of the London/Europe session are very often lost in the afternoon, or towards the end of the NY session (not sure of the exact times, but that's the general pattern). And while these are not "normal times" (when is it ever?), it has been following something like that pattern recently. On a purely "reversion to the mean" basis, I could see it easily getting back to 1.62 today.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 28, 2010 2:16
"Safe as the Bank of England...".

Ah well...

Well done to anyone who successfully captured the spikes in cable and Euro.
(I totally missed the boat).

Still better to be out of a trade wishing you were in than being in a trade wishing you were out of it :-)

Speaking of which...

The only one of my orders to trigger was the long in EUR/GPB, and that was too high.
I thought 0.8650 would easily hold. Now it's looking like 0.8600 is threatened. Still, it can easily come back from there in a reasonable time.

Let's see what the European session brings.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 28, 2010 0:11
@Said: I see. Thanks.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 23:38
@Said: What is 1098 based on? Thanks.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 27, 2010 20:35
@Radu: Yes, I'd be more likely to short a bounce to 1100+ . From where we are now, I feel it could go either way, so shorting is a bit risky I feel.

@Said: Gold you mean? Interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if so.