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Posts by "montmorency"

678 Posts Total by "montmorency":
604 Posts by member
montmorency
(Abingdon, United Kingdom)
74 Posts by Anonymous "montmorency":
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 21:53
@Said: Well, it _might_ have gone well above 1.4 and then he might have been wishing strongly that he had followed your advice!

Like the song says, you've got to know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em....

It's all too easy to get it wrong, either way. (I certainly have).

Good luck all next week.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 21:41
@PippedOff: You said "The only huge movements were cable and euro, the two trash pairs. Aussie, which actually has some game behind it's name, was only moved 15 pips."

Did you look at AUD/JPY? It lost almost 100 pips on the day. I should know. I lost most off them!
(ouch).
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 20:31
BTW, and for what it's worth, my "prediction" of January 13, 2010 21:38, for EUR/USD, which was based entirely on price-action (a bearish daily pin bar or inverted hammer), worked out reasonably well, with a partial fall the next day, and a bigger one today.

Today's bar is looking pretty bearish to me, and on that basis, next week should also be down, with perhaps a bit of a bounce first. However, we have the US holiday on Monday to distort the market.

For what it's worth this week's weekly bar is a bearish pin bar (almost) although it is not ideally placed (it should be at the end of an upswing, whereas it's on the end of a consolidation. Still I will be looking for shorting opportunities next week.

This is not any kind of recommendation.

Trade safe; stops and money management always.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 20:03
Well, well, it's been quite a week (but aren't they all).

I made a few pips shorting EUR/USD, a few more pips shorting cable. Profitable positions now closed for weekend. One small one slightly under water in Euro, and others in cable (but they have enough "air" to breathe and I can wait for them....). Will look to open up a short position in cable at market re-open if there looks to be a good bounce. Should have made more pips today really, but bad timing.

Now long in EUR/GBP from 0.8838. hm... BTW, that guy I referred to from the other forum looks to have got all of his short move and a little bit more if he wanted it (target was 0.8830).
(long EUR/GBP is cheaper to hold over the weekend than short EUR/USD at least :-) ).


Got burned early this morning on AUD/JPY. Ouch, especially as it was probably avoidable. Still, we lose and learn. I'm guessing that the drop was driven by the drop in gold?
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 18:40
@rkkashmir: you said "I meant i feel gbp/usd is 300 pips too high ".

So did I.
Unfortunately, the market does not ask our opinion on this matter.
Fortunately, it's now only about 200 pips too high! :-)

montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 15, 2010 16:09
VOTE:Yes, in Q2

Fear of inflation (real or imagined danger); Fed not wanting to appear too doveish. By then there will be other hikes around the world.
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 2:04
Well, my AUD is +ve again. My EUR/USD is (slightly) under water....glug glug...
...see you tomorrow morning (maybe) .....glug.

montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 2:02
@Chloe: I'd find it hard to believe the BoE would do that now. Apart from anything else, on top of all this snow....seriously! It would NOT be good news.

ECB, maybe ....?

Who else is a candidate...?
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 1:59
Nzvik: It's hard to argue with you mate ....

Still, we make our own beds...

montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
14 years ago
Jan 14, 2010 1:52
@Chloe: Take it from a Brit: our people are masters of doublespeak. Don't believe a word of it....