Posts by "nzvik"

Radu

Have a read of this - it should help you understand the reports and possible use of them - remember the data is computed on tuesday every week but published on friday - so there is a time lag which has implications on how you interpret them.
http://investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/COTreport.asp?partner=ntu9


cheers
vik

this is crazy - the Merkel potential resignation if you google - comes up only with some fx trading website - no mainstream media seems to be talking about it - on the internet or tv !

Xaron - if this is just a stupid rumour - then it is a great buying opportunity before europe opens

EUR 1.4440 still holding - but got close today. a pull back in euro may be on the cards - early signs of a downward drift are visible

Mont - appears to be working now, however I am getting uncomfortable with my EUR long - market is broadly stuck between 1.4460 and 530 if it does not blast past 1.4600 before the ECB rate decision tonight - we could have a mini reversal. but still not the environment to short unless you want scalp around

pippedoff - that was my post of bearish USD which Ashraf disagreed with - and here is original clarification give for it :

""Ashraf

bias is to the downside for USD. Even GBP USD cannot be pushed down to 1.6 and as I write is back above 1.61 - but lets disregard this as noise.

earnings may not be a game changer this quarter as I expect results to be around expectations, and we have already started seen sizeable decoupling of the USDX from Equities, the inverse co-relation has been fragile for the last 6 weeks or so.
the game changer is the NFP which after a loss of 85k - may help keep QE and low rates for an extended time. till the fed makes some sort of definitive announcement on a timeline - the market will assume extended to mean indefinite. historically the fed does not talk of raising rates when employment is at 10%.

Fundamentals aside - the price momentum since NFP and a couple of days before that has been up for eurusd. the upside i think is high - 1.47 thru to 1.5. till price momentum remains upward i see no reason to be short. whether the top for the time being is 1.4620 or 1.48 - i am not very sure, but i would not advise anyone to short this yet.