Posts by "nzvik"

Ashraf,

Purely technical reasons. both usdjpy and the nikkei are very close to key resistance zones. 10750 on Nikkei and 92.3 on usdjpy. also based on COT data traders are close to being as short on the Yen as they have been over the last year.
but best to be very nimble over the next 2 to 3 weeks as these resistance zones may be breached. i will go short only on confirmation of a trend change on both.

weekly charts on the usdjpy show the down channel is still intact

Euro down trend looking to accelerate, however solid support zone in the 1.39 to 1.43 area - market historically likes that zone - so look for some range trading there. a short term bounce to 1.4480-1.4500 maybe a good area to short if you are not already.

okay - but i am quite sure you have been calling for a dollar rally for 5 months or more and I also suspect you do not trade any of your theories you put out - or else you'd be out of pocket on the long dollar trade you have been advocating for 5 months

USD rallied after the last NFP on Dec 4 - it is quite simple cause and effect. trying to overcomplicate issues is best left to economists.

just wait till Jan 9 for the next NFP if it is a "major" disappointment - USD will violently move down - the drop of nearly 1000 pips (in EURUSD) will be made up in half the time it has taken to go down. however if jobs start getting added - then USD might rally some more and then settle into a range for sometime - what that level will be I don't know - maybe EUR at 1.35 to 1.38.

just because the move to USD as a safe haven happened in the last equity crash, is no assurance it will happen again. but i am no expert - and if one is sure of a deeper dip next year and operates in a longer time horizon - then trade it.
esoteric economic theories are not tradeable to make money regularly.

looks like Goldman faded the USD rally too early
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldmans-attempt-ambush-dollar-aborted-tactical-shorts-closed-stop-losses-hit