EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
How to improve your decision--makingh between Nasdaq100 and SPX by watching technicals in bond yields - Details in video description.
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If you start holding very strong views about where oil "should" be, you will miss trades which will make you money. If you are looking to hold trades for 3 to 6 months - then your fundamental theories may hold good.
I agree with Gunjack views. The supply demand logic is too simple. I could take a long term fundamental view that hybrid cars will have a 50% share therefore oil should be at $20 ?
I don't really care what the supply / demand situation is and what the fundamental logic behind the current price is - there are too many dynamics at play with crude and I am not good enuf to analyse them to death. My only interest is if I can trade it.
I am unsure at this stage where crude will go - as there seems to be some decoupling with USD weakness.
But in the short term if I had to take a view - then it would be bullish.
as a trader words like "should" normally land one in trouble, if you are an economist then it is a different game altogether
Good Luck
It could overextend - however, I think the game has changed a little bit over the last week, when the USDX has held around 75 most of the time while gold has gone up nearly 50 dollars (4.5%) - so not a weak dollar play over the last 5/6 days. My view is that every man and his dog has recently seen this huge rally and got into gold in a big way, and could possibly drive the price higher for a couple of more weeks at best before their is no one left to buy. Paulson's media disclosure could also be about talking his book.
the crowds are always right in the middle of the trend and always wrong at the tops and bottoms.
Look at the chart - gold has been on a 4 - 5 week cycle moving upwards. If that had to play in Nov. also - Gold should have peaked at about 1120 and dipped to about 1080, before resuming its uptrend. But then things normally don't happen as they are supposed to, otherwise 90% of traders would not lose money.
In the last few days the move has been almost parabolic - it has clearly broken upwards of the rising trend line. Now, this could mean the last gasp buying of a rally about to reverse. Paulson - the hedge fund guy - has also come out today claiming he has invested $250M of his own money in a Gold fund.
Overall I think we are topping at 1150 - but stranger things have happened.
I would not recommend to keep shorting to hopefully average out - unless u have a lot of funds you are comfortable risking.
Good luck
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Good luck
I don't use EWT or Fib levels in my trading. Too exotic for me.
Hope your open positions come right for you.
Good Luck
vik
I studied EWT a while back and tried to trade with it, however concluded that it is all too subjective and looks great after the price action. There are far better methods of trading profitably . Elliott himself died a pauper.
Prechter has marketed this very well to all who like mystical theories. Prechter was on CNBC recently and when explaining his bearishness went into market internals like A/D line and the like - while I was hoping he would come up with his wave counts to explain his bearishness. He has been bearish since early August - and ultimately he may come right - but timing is the biggest issue with EWT.
S&P did not go below 1084.9 today - having said that GBP has not followed EUR and AUD even in the last hour of decline.
Asian session will be interesting. If we rally tomorrow or even hold - we may have a chance next week to take out 1100 and more - if we drop below 1080 - then we could go down further to the 1030s etc.
I have anyway stopped trading Cable over the last 6 weeks - too volatile for me, moves dramatically on any kind of news. Maybe something to do with lower volume on cable.
Ashraf, Can you advise if cable traded volume has declined over the last 6 to 8 weeks if you have that data ?
EUR and AUD have had big down days unlike GBP.