I normally don't take into account very long term and extreme predictions. They are easy to make and as time passes their relevance erodes as the game has changed. Extreme events like yen at 50 - even if it is true will happen slowly and one will get enough opportunities to take advantage of that. But how do I position myself for trading it when my trading horizon is no more than a week or 2 ? Even if the Yen ends at 50 (very unlikely in my lifetime) , I doubt the Japs will go down without a fight. And don't forget once the S&P crosses 1200 - the Fed will likely increase interest rates. USD strength may be just round the corner, but I can't time it perfectly - we will get enough indications that the tide is changing to take advantage.
I can't see a Equities sell off - rather the opposite at this stage.
Earnings look good, economic indicators are improving - though slowly.
small corrections may happen though - 2 to 3 % which we have had in the past 6 months - but when will a 2-3% correction change into a 10 - 15% sell off - is anybodys guess. I am not going to even dream of trying to time that - will keep playing with the trend at this stage - specially on clean breakouts
i prefer long oil. should breach 80 in the next few days if it goes well.
The breakout looks very powerful - could go all the way to 85, original GS target. watch as Gold is way down today. Guess where the money has shifted ?
False break outs are part of the game - I look at daily charts - and enter the minute a new 55 day high is broken i.e. I do not wait for a close all the time. Stops are pretty tight as breakouts can be caused by noisy spikes which have no meaning in the overall direction of the market. sometimes i will enter on a 20 of 30 day new high - it depends how strongly range bound the instrument has been in the last 20 - 30 days - if for e.g. a resistance or support has been hit few times and held - then its break is normally quite powerful. However if you have have a 20 / 30 day resistance which has been hit only once - then once its broken - the support it offers is also weak - higher potential for a false breakout.
You have to practice this quite a lot before u can perfect your way of doing it. I am still learning how to optimise this
Yes Rajesh, Thats the one - Richard Dennis - is an 80s systems - but still works- needs a lot of discipline to follow as with any system, and it does not work with all instruments all the time. Good luck
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ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (10 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (10 months ago)
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I am long from 89.80 - at the first breakout.
today is critical - if it breaks 91.5 it goes higher - otherwise we could see a fast and strong retracement.
Neckline at 1.5980 was breached for a while but the pair has bounced. Break of 1.6740 will take us to 1.7 and more.
long from 80.20
Interesting article.
I normally don't take into account very long term and extreme predictions. They are easy to make and as time passes their relevance erodes as the game has changed.
Extreme events like yen at 50 - even if it is true will happen slowly and one will get enough opportunities to take advantage of that. But how do I position myself for trading it when my trading horizon is no more than a week or 2 ?
Even if the Yen ends at 50 (very unlikely in my lifetime) , I doubt the Japs will go down without a fight. And don't forget once the S&P crosses 1200 - the Fed will likely increase interest rates. USD strength may be just round the corner, but I can't time it perfectly - we will get enough indications that the tide is changing to take advantage.
I can't see a Equities sell off - rather the opposite at this stage.
Earnings look good, economic indicators are improving - though slowly.
small corrections may happen though - 2 to 3 % which we have had in the past 6 months - but when will a 2-3% correction change into a 10 - 15% sell off - is anybodys guess. I am not going to even dream of trying to time that - will keep playing with the trend at this stage - specially on clean breakouts
Good luck
Vik
The breakout looks very powerful - could go all the way to 85, original GS target. watch as Gold is way down today. Guess where the money has shifted ?
False break outs are part of the game - I look at daily charts - and enter the minute a new 55 day high is broken i.e. I do not wait for a close all the time.
Stops are pretty tight as breakouts can be caused by noisy spikes which have no meaning in the overall direction of the market. sometimes i will enter on a 20 of 30 day new high - it depends how strongly range bound the instrument has been in the last 20 - 30 days - if for e.g. a resistance or support has been hit few times and held - then its break is normally quite powerful. However if you have have a 20 / 30 day resistance which has been hit only once - then once its broken - the support it offers is also weak - higher potential for a false breakout.
You have to practice this quite a lot before u can perfect your way of doing it. I am still learning how to optimise this
Good luck