EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
How to improve your decision--makingh between Nasdaq100 and SPX by watching technicals in bond yields - Details in video description.
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Short - on a clear break below 9072. This may happen today or could take a full week or more - as their is a H&S forming (daily charts) provided there is a rally in the next few days upto 9300, but not beyond. If 9072 is broken then on further breaks of key support (8980, 8840, 8695) I will keep adding to my short.
Long - I am less confident of getting into a long position - but it would be only on a clear break of 9400. However, the ideal scenario to go long would be for a move up to 9400 followed by a move down to 9250 and then a final clean breach of 9400 . This would then be a good position to enter long. We then have resistance at 9512 which if broken the pair could head to 9800.
Spec is right about the extreme positioning of traders against the dollar (excluding GBP). Following is positioning as per COT data for 13th Oct (the last one released) - % of non-commercial contracts that are long :
JPY - 75.1%
EUR - 68.7%
CHF - 84.0%
CAD - 88.6%
AUD - 89.2%
NZD - 91.5%
and
GBP - 11.6%
Good Luck.
Asad, a lot of the fundamental theories work with a reasonably long time horizon (6 months+)
Even if the S&P tops - oil can keep going higher. The S&P topped in Q4 2007, Oil did not top till Q3 2008 - so lagged quite a lot.
But in dropping - things catch up very fast - in fact oil hit a bottom in Q4 2008 while the S&P did so in Q1 09. So while going up oil lagged by 3 quarters while going down Oil led by a quarter. As with most markets if you look at the same place you found cheese last time, you are unlikely to find it.
between 75 and 95 should not impact any growth.
long from 80.20
Interesting article.
I normally don't take into account very long term and extreme predictions. They are easy to make and as time passes their relevance erodes as the game has changed.
Extreme events like yen at 50 - even if it is true will happen slowly and one will get enough opportunities to take advantage of that. But how do I position myself for trading it when my trading horizon is no more than a week or 2 ?
Even if the Yen ends at 50 (very unlikely in my lifetime) , I doubt the Japs will go down without a fight. And don't forget once the S&P crosses 1200 - the Fed will likely increase interest rates. USD strength may be just round the corner, but I can't time it perfectly - we will get enough indications that the tide is changing to take advantage.
A number of Jap companies go under with a strong Yen. See the weekly charts - a downtrend appears intact even with the current strength, though I doubt the Japanese will allow the Yen to drop to 87 again.
I can't see a Equities sell off - rather the opposite at this stage.
Earnings look good, economic indicators are improving - though slowly.
small corrections may happen though - 2 to 3 % which we have had in the past 6 months - but when will a 2-3% correction change into a 10 - 15% sell off - is anybodys guess. I am not going to even dream of trying to time that - will keep playing with the trend at this stage - specially on clean breakouts
Good luck
Vik
GBPUSD is a tricky one to call - movement is large and in opposite directions over the last few days so in my opinion a dangerous play - therefore similar impact on GBP crosses.
On Aug 5 GBP peaked at 1.7040. On that day EURUSD was at 1.4440.
Now GBP is at 1.6260 - still 740 pips below its Aug 5 peak while EURUSD has moved to 1.93 nearly 500 pips above its Aug5 level.
If GBP is going to play catch up (it may not) you can guess where its headed. The move today is 2 times its ATR - more than 300 pips.
We could get a pull back though.
GBPJPY looks headed up - helped by GBP strength and Yen weakness - double whammy.
Tasha, AUD looks like a morning correction - this is coming back. Lets see it it breaks 92.30. AUD has a pretty strong correlation with Gold which is down today - read this before u trade more commodity currencieshttp://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/06/CommodityCurrencies.asp
The breakout looks very powerful - could go all the way to 85, original GS target. watch as Gold is way down today. Guess where the money has shifted ?
False break outs are part of the game - I look at daily charts - and enter the minute a new 55 day high is broken i.e. I do not wait for a close all the time.
Stops are pretty tight as breakouts can be caused by noisy spikes which have no meaning in the overall direction of the market. sometimes i will enter on a 20 of 30 day new high - it depends how strongly range bound the instrument has been in the last 20 - 30 days - if for e.g. a resistance or support has been hit few times and held - then its break is normally quite powerful. However if you have have a 20 / 30 day resistance which has been hit only once - then once its broken - the support it offers is also weak - higher potential for a false breakout.
You have to practice this quite a lot before u can perfect your way of doing it. I am still learning how to optimise this