EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
How to improve your decision--makingh between Nasdaq100 and SPX by watching technicals in bond yields - Details in video description.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
Good luck
The GBP bounce came - a little later than I thought - currently at 1.6170 ! lets see if it holds today (doubtful) as it is already beyond its Daily ATR after a move of 200 pips today. has moved nearly 500 pips up in the last 3 days
If it holds above 1.6125 today - then more gains could be due as it plays catch up. i not trading this one at this stage, as it appears very volatile and unpredictable - 500 pip reversal in three days !
whoever was on the right side of this move, sure did well.
Vik
Here's the link
http://www.earnforex.com/forex_e-books/beginner_forex_trading/turtlerules.pdf
You will need to read about it - however :
breakouts are simply the price moving out of clear range after a certain time - normally 4 weeks or 8 weeks.
So if say a currency makes a new 4 week high - then you go long. If it makes a new 4 week low - you go short.
Some people prefer a 55 day breakout (as it is more certain) - which is a new 55 day high - u go long and vice versa.
Pretty simple ? Not always - because u do get false breakouts, and only with experience will you get better at spotting them.
Suggest u google - turtle trading or break out trading - u should be able to find a free PDF (the original turtle rules) which u can go thru and test , if you believe this is what you want to try
Good Luck
Looking for 83.50 but now with tighter stops.
The first breakout was a 40 day break out. Now after breaching 82.1 this has become a 60 day breakout - even more powerful.
In my opinion breakouts are the most powerful and certain indicators for a clear move, far stronger than chart patterns or candlesticks. However, each one to their own, whatever works for you.
Fundamentally, Aussie will strengthen further and watch for increased Yen weakness. I don't for a minute believe the Japanese are not concerned about a strong Yen - those brave statements coming out of Tokyo last month , are just statements - behind the scenes they will be intervening to weaken the Yen.
Watch USDJPY if it breaks above 90.50 (17 day break out) and then 92.50 (35 day breakout) - the uptrend would have started then. 87 will not happen on the yen - in my opinion - but I have been wrong a number of times.
CADJPY is also clearly off its downtrend - I am watching for a clear break of 88.35 to go long, probably 5 days away. Before that need to research any potential intervention by the Canadians.
Good Luck.
Do you think the divergence is gone for the time being. Obviously we need to see the week before things settle clearly in one direction.
Not really a fan of betting against GS - as with the end of Lehman, Bear ... etc. GS has visibility to an even bigger book !
however, just a bit concerned with Meredith Whitney's downgrade - will wait and watch.
Upside risks remain as dollar weakness continues. Crude is at a year high. Will wait for a clear break either way before taking a trade.
No reason for Financials to rally yet.
Tech rally is Intel earnings driven.
Divergence exists for the day - but all this could change after earnings later in the week
JPM - wed
Citi and Goldman - thu
BOA - Fri
if these earnings beat expectations, we go rocking up again for another 5% on the S&P in the next 10 days. Expectations should be beaten but I am not as confident as I was earlier after Whitney's downgrade of Goldman yesterday. Will wait and watch - but definitely not concerned about the divergence yet, maybe by the end of the week if it remains.
Most of the crowd on CNBC is talking their book (or as you say trying to get in at lower prices)
You've just got to hear the PIMCO crowd rubbishing the market - what else can you expect - they sell bonds, and CNBC is almost obliged to give them a fair say as PIMCO does spend a fair amount of advertising dollars with them - and could possibly have negotiated some "editorial" (non advertising) air time.
did not get into gbp long (thankfully) - needed it to bounce above 1.5860 - which it did not in the asian session. will probably go short if cable bounces to 1.58.
Any pullbacks I would use to short.
Breaking 1.0590 and now likely to break 1.0300.
Below 1.0300 I can't see any major support on the weekly charts till we reach the Psychological barrier of 1.000 - once broken it is a free fall to 0.97.
Only a major fundamental shift in sentiment - crashing stocks & oil, and return to substantial USD strength can stop this. The other factor in CADs favour is the Canadian economy has clearly started adding jobs - more strength.
The only thing I can see which can derail this fall in the short term is the COT data which is at a CAD bullish extreme - 88% of positions are CAD long, which could lead to a pullback - but these extreme positions can remain so for quite some time.