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Posts by "nzvik"

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263 Posts Total by "nzvik":
225 Posts by member
nzvik
(Auckland, New Zealand)
38 Posts by Anonymous "nzvik":
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nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 12, 2010 10:54
In Thread: EUR
Ashraf's last IMT suggests Euro may rise to 1.3780

1.32s have been touched - question is will it challenge the year lows again and dip to 1.3- the Fed rate increase holds the key to that now not the ongoing circus in Europe
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 11, 2010 23:33
In Thread: GBP
pretty much most of the time - when the shorts throw in the towel - the market then goes down. If you can hold thru the euphoric rise, then your shorts normally work - the issue arises when you have seen so much pain thru the market rising against your shorts - that you are almost relieved to get out the moment the market drops closer to your break even. This is a common problem as rarely are traders good at picking absolute tops and bottoms - then, after exiting at your breakeven - the market normally has more to go below.
Will be shorting GBPUSD if it spikes again above 1.5450 - and then again if it touches 1.5550.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 9, 2010 13:11
In Thread: S&P500 / VIX Ratio & USD LIBOR
Ginger

I saw the interview - u r right the FM guys just did not let him complete a sentence. I agree with him - that this could be a great shorting opportunity- but with low leverage - so a bit more tolerance for further gains in equities.
Catnip - ur system theoretical approach sounds interesting - as Montomorency suggested - give us a few leads if that is fine with you and those interested can research it further - I'd be keen to understand it.
Regarding flipping a coin - I think I should do that sometimes specially in the market environment of the last 3 months - would have done better than my methods.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 8, 2010 22:47
In Thread: S&P500 / VIX Ratio & USD LIBOR
what makes you so confident Said ?
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 8, 2010 22:46
In Thread: S&P500 / VIX Ratio & USD LIBOR
yes - saw that - Prechter has been calling for a major correction in stocks since August 2009 - you'd be out of business if you were shorting the market since Aug 09.
btw I am short the Russell and the Nikkei - and hope he is right, but won't count on it.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 2:07
In Thread: EUR
AUDNZD possibly in a down trend channel. could take out 1.28 next week and maybe more
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 2, 2010 1:21
In Thread: JPY
Hey Mont,

Welcome back.

Haven't read Livemore - maybe I should - would have made fewer mistakes. Get it - how you test the water, sometimes I do make the mistake of testing to much - which eats up profits - but I normally learn from these small loses.

I don't understand the yen fundamentals either (not that I care) - just trade on technical analysis.

Yen trade is working well at this stage added to the original short (93.6) at 94 which it just kissed.

Will take a few days to work out - if it does . looking for sub 92. will need to set up stops and limit orders as I am off to Fiji for a few days
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 13:12
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
maybe this is a short covering rally as most stops would have been around 84 and higher. It is easier to run stops in thinner markets. could collapse quite quickly in a day or two
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 12:09
In Thread: GBP
1.53 may be a good level to short GBP if it gets there.
nzvik
Auckland, New Zealand
Posts: 225
14 years ago
Apr 1, 2010 11:00
In Thread: JPY
Ptaczek,

purely technical. no great fundamental theories behind it. price got too close to the 3rd Standard deviation on the daily charts, previous resistance is around 93.75, RSI is at the highest level it has been in the last one year. I think the market likes the 90.5 zone - so hopefully will come done there.
enough reasons for me to risk a short - does not work all the time - but with leverage below 1:5 - i normally can widen stops if I think the trade needs more space to work or vice versa
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