Posts by "nzvik"

5 mins is for me - when i don't have any position on a pair which is going to be impacted by major news. I have no position on AUD - so will wait 5 mins after all the noise subsides and the spreads get normal before i enter any trade.

by 1% i meant GDP - if it comes out at 1% then AUD will rally.
Since you are in the trade already - if it goes against you - you should not wait to get out of it.

Radu,

last three quarters were 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.2% - the forecast now is 0.9% which is very aggressive because the last time GDP grew q/q at this level was Dec 07.

but - and a big but, the comparative quarter of last year declined 0.5% - which was the only decline over the last 9 years - the previous time Australia had a -ve GDP was in the release of March 2001. Therefore, to grow 0.9% off a -0.5% GDP is not hard at all.

Also, I suspect the RBA would have some idea of the figure before they decided yesterday to raise the cash rate again.

guessing what the number will be is like playing in a casino. if you are still short audnzd - then put a wide stop before the release - as, if it comes out at 1% or more then aud will rally - i think.

I will trade the event either way - 5 minutes after the release, if it looks right. Just so you know - a few of the so called forex experts are short audjpy - so you have them on your side.

Good luck
Vik

have a look at the 3hour (180min) chart of spot gold. see the candle formation on Feb 1.

it is very similar now - after some range bound movement - we have had 3 green candles of 180min. then a retracement which we may be entering now. but max pullback then was limited to $10 - so basis that we could go back to $1128 which is also close to the sigma 1 level - which is where one needs to take a decision - re-enter long or exit shorts or continue to go short ?

i sense Ashraf's earlier call of a possible retracement on the Euro upto 1.3850 could also play out at the same time, this will further strengthen gold.

i sense most of the forum is short - so i hope for all of you that it does not play out like Feb 1 - as we could be at 1150+ in the next couple of days.

Good luck all.

interesting post
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gold-surges-dxy-positive-day

Hi Radu,
Don't trade that pair. however, i learnt at the cost of a few hundred pips to never bet against the aussie in the last 10-12 months - just see the fate of EURAUD and GBPAUD - the technicals are constantly signalling a buy but trying to time a bounce is very hard.

1.3050 is a a good area for a quick short - though as you know if a pair makes a new high it is a bit dangerous to short.