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Posts by "orange_trad"

20 Posts by member
orange_trad
(New York, New York, United States)
 
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orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Aug 17, 2010 7:35
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
AUD is strong as ever, ready to retest .908. Add to that EURAUD failed to hold 1.43 yesterday, heading to below 1.42 and GBPAUD soon to retest its trendline at 1.735-6 and unable to break 1.753. For anyone shorting AUD, it's not a pretty picture as it's been so easy to be on the long side for the past few weeks. I wonder at which point will Ashraf throw in the towel with GBPAUD as well.
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Aug 13, 2010 9:00
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Ashraf, are you still bullish on EUR/AUD - I know you prefer GBP/AUD now, but EUR/AUD broke below the 1.43 support and GBP/AUD just came back from the abiss.
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Aug 10, 2010 20:08
In Thread: USD
"To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities. The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as they mature."

How is this QEII?
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Aug 6, 2010 20:24
In Thread: GBP Getting Best of Down Under
There's just too much interest in getting long AUD over the weekend. AUDUSD hit another high, while both EURAUD & GBPAUD are back to ground0: neither can sustain a rally even after 150 pips rallies in EURUSD & GBPUSD. AUDUSD just keeps getting stronger good news, or bad... Even wheat fell spectacularly (look at that daily candle), yet aussie is strong as ever... 0.94 is coming, and then I wouldn't be surprised to see an ATH.
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Aug 5, 2010 9:38
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
Ashraf, I fully agree that going long aussie at this stage is a very bad r:r. However, in my experience AUS fundamentals are always* trumped by risk appetite and the lure of the carry. Thus, until some bad news come to light that would prompt an equity sell-off, I don't really see a plunge in aussie. When it will happen, the down-move will be as vicious as aggravating this AUD rally is. But until then AUDUSD could retest .94 for all the dashing optimism out there.

*always meaning certainty in a statistical sense
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Aug 4, 2010 16:41
In Thread: Commodity FX (CAD AUD NZD NOK)
"note how CAD remains firm while aussie euro sterling coming off"

Ashraf, yes euro & sterling coming off in lockstep (will it last though?), but why do you say aussie is coming off? AUDUSD just made a new local high (hasn't been this high since the May 4th plunge: 89 pips to go and the whole fall is negated) while EURAUD fell 60 pips and GBPAUD fell 80.
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Aug 2, 2010 11:45
In Thread: EUR
"EUR [...] is showing the LEAST GAINS versus the USD"
"this does not mean traders can ignore the sharp gains in AUD, CAD and GBP"

Ashraf, does this mean that you're no longer bullish on EUR/AUD & GBP/AUD?
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Jul 22, 2010 8:41
In Thread: EUR
Passion Trader: Hungary is blown out of proportion. Its a debate about the bank-tax that the Hungarian gov. wants, not closing down public transport and hospitals that the IMF wants, and little things like reducing the salary of the HNB's director which is currently twice the salary of the Fed's director... Now why would the IMF oppose that? Hm...

Anyways, I'm happy to short EUR/HUF from 290, and 230 USD/HUF, every time the media has something to say about Hun.

The only remorse I have is that there is no Spanish currency, so I could long that too...
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
Jun 18, 2010 9:31
In Thread: Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
Station,

Just 21 minutes before your post here, in the Commodity FX thread you posted this:

"The AUD USD is nearing a key resistance level at .8727. The current rally looks tired which could mean that another round of weak economic data will send it lower. The chart indicates there is room to the downside with .8377 the next likely downside target."

So which is it?
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
14 years ago
May 27, 2010 16:24
In Thread: FX Interventions, Aussie & Gold
AUD/USD is in rally mode, every retrace is bringing in more buyers, today was 250 pips straight up without retrace, and counting. Expect tomorrow the same. I don't see this stopping before .87.

The part that is baffling is why AUD correlates with oil and not gold? Anyone can explain that?
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