Posts by "qiman"

This WSJ article is about currency volatility in general, and since the Euro plays such a huge role these days, I posted it here:

"But as great an impact this economic turbulence has had for all markets, foreign exchange might be particularly vulnerable to sharp and sudden fluctuations.

That could be because currencies are state contingent; the probability-weighted sum of payoffs under different scenarios, as Chris Dillow, an economist at the Investors Chronicle, puts it.

Any small changes to the odds of small-probability, high-loss events such as the dissolution of the euro zone or an American or British or Japanese default will cause a sharp movement in the currency. Even though the likelihood is small, if it is greater than zero and has a potentially catastrophic outcome, it ought to have a significant price impact."
http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2010/07/05/currency-volatility-is-here-to-stay/

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Collapse Potentially More Devastating than Lehman!

"As horrific as the gulf environmental catastrophe is, an even more intractable and cataclysmic disaster may be looming. The yet unknowable costs associated with clean-up, litigation and compensation damages due to arguably the worlds worst environmental tragedy, may be in the process of triggering a credit event by British Petroleum (BP) that will be equally devastating to global over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives. The potential contagion may eventually show that Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns were simply early warning signals of the devastation lurking and continuing to grow unchecked in the $615T OTC Derivatives market."
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20778.html

This is an excellent article on copper, which of course has an impact on the AUS. Perhaps some of you also trade copper directly?

"13 of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a shortage next year. Traders are being too bearish because lower prices may curb spending on mines and exacerbate future shortages, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which forecasts a price of $8,050 in 12 months.

In the short-term, were looking at slowing growth and oversupply, but longer-term, things look good, said Michael Pento, the chief economist at Delta Global Advisors Inc. in Holmdel, New Jersey who correctly predicted Januarys slump that began this years 10 percent decline. The smart move is to buy copper for a few quarters down the road."
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-06/copper-shortage-looms-as-codelco-sees-limits-on-mines.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/sterlings-rally-should-run-out-of-steam-now-2010-07-05/8B619BBC-F26F-4EE7-B159-4AE248B013C4

"Gold, which climbed to a record last month on concern that the global economic recovery may be faltering, may slide to the lowest price since May, according to a technical analysis from Commerzbank AG.

The metal, trading today at $1,213.65 an ounce, may slip to $1,172.10 after closing below its 55-day moving average, Axel Rudolph, a technical analyst at the bank, wrote in a report, citing trading patterns. That dip makes us question our previously bullish forecast, Rudolph wrote in the July 2 note."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-05/gold-may-decline-on-trend-reversal-commerzbank-says-technical-analysis.html