Posts by "qiman"

Oil today was a good example of TA sometimes driving things strongly--it failed to form a double bottom at around 75.50, and then plummeted 75 cents within minutes. Wasn't correlated with much else going on out there, siimply the chart pattern didn't hold and so short sellers piled on.

@ catnip, in general I agree with you. For certain short periods natural gas can run its own course fairly detached from the oveall market, with weather having such a large impact. Occasionally I see some of the softs do the same. But overall, inter-market correlations are incredibly important, even though they can shift in maddening ways!

Flippiing a coin sometimes works just as well as hours of analysis, but as a trader I do pay attention to some of the more salient ones like goldman sachs, for their predictions can move markets, at least in the short term. Many years ago I made the mistake of getting too caught up in the prediction game, instead of simply paying careful attention to current price movement. All the various indicators are first and second derivatives of price movement, prices are King.

RBS: Get Ready for the Cliff Edge

Just one excerpt:

RBS says housing is in the lynch pin in the whole economy and that the next leg down will trigger the collapse:

First, we have been waiting for the last of the US fiscal easings, the first time homebuyer tax credit, to pass, and have been arguing strongly for some weeks to investors to get ready for the violent turn down which is about to occur. And the trigger (not the only reason, but the trigger) is the US housing market. This is all falling into place lovely. Last week saw the NAHB housing index dip; housing starts at -10%mom (6.3% under consensus), and building permits -5.9%mom (8.4% under consensus). This week has seen existing home sales -2.2% (8.2% under consensus); and new home sales -32.7%mom (14% under consensus). Our theme is building. The BoE financial stability report today shows there is a surplus of 1.75m housing units built since 2006 and even with normal household creation, this will take two years to remove. So the weak housing theme should now pollute its way into consumers, and kickstart the rebuilding of the savings rate (just 3.6% and delayed from rebuilding by the fiscal/monetary shock and awe).
http://pragcap.com/rbs-get-ready-for-the-cliff-edge

A MAJORITY of Germans wants to scrap the euro and bring back the old currency, the deutschemark, according to a new poll.

Read more:http://www.news.com.au/business/breaking-news/most-germans-want-to-ditch-the-euro-poll/story-e6frfkur-1225885882927#ixzz0sHhMoi9V