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Posts by "qiman"
248 Posts Total by "qiman":
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Posts by Anonymous "qiman":
Just one excerpt:
RBS says housing is in the lynch pin in the whole economy and that the next leg down will trigger the collapse:
First, we have been waiting for the last of the US fiscal easings, the first time homebuyer tax credit, to pass, and have been arguing strongly for some weeks to investors to get ready for the violent turn down which is about to occur. And the trigger (not the only reason, but the trigger) is the US housing market. This is all falling into place lovely. Last week saw the NAHB housing index dip; housing starts at -10%mom (6.3% under consensus), and building permits -5.9%mom (8.4% under consensus). This week has seen existing home sales -2.2% (8.2% under consensus); and new home sales -32.7%mom (14% under consensus). Our theme is building. The BoE financial stability report today shows there is a surplus of 1.75m housing units built since 2006 and even with normal household creation, this will take two years to remove. So the weak housing theme should now pollute its way into consumers, and kickstart the rebuilding of the savings rate (just 3.6% and delayed from rebuilding by the fiscal/monetary shock and awe).
http://pragcap.com/rbs-get-ready-for-the-cliff-edge
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cold-shoulder-goldman-warns-if-1040-taken-out-sp-865-next-stop