Posts by "qiman"

Here is an article regarding new allegations of JP Morgan manipulating silver. Yes, we have heard such stories before, but this one appears to have some new info from an insider:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/whistleblower-exposes-jp-morgans-silver-manipulation-scheme

Very important article on spreads on CDS for US:

"As the folks at Standard Poor's Valuation and Risk Strategies division noted in a research note Monday, the difference between the spread on U.S. sovereign credit default swaps and an equivalent benchmark for AAA-rated euro-zone sovereigns flipped into positive territory March 12. As U.S. CDS spreads expanded to their widest levels in two years, that cross-region gap blew out to 5.7 basis points last Friday before narrowing to 4.7 Tuesday."
http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052748703312504575142112712294450-lMyQjAxMTAwMDIwNDEyNDQyWj.html

Excellent article in NY Times: German Calls for Austerity Have Europe Grumbling

"But some argue that Berlin is pressing too hard, and that the regions new fixation on debt has created a cult of austerity that could make it harder to recover from the slump. Drastic budget cuts, if carried out as promised, could set off deflation...."
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/18/world/europe/18euro.html?hpw

@RRose--regarding gold. We don't always know why. When I started trading in the mid-90s I was very concerned with understanding why, now I focus more on actual price movement. The why can be exceedingly complex at times, so many energetic inputs. Perhaps in this situation short-term holders of gold have been happy to sell into any small rally, having made out quite well on yesterday's rally. In any case, not enough buyers have come into the market today to overwhelm the sellers. Not enough traders believed there was substantial potential for the price to rise, or they would have piled in once again. Might go up tomorrow for little apparent reason, but Momentum in gold can stop suddenly and consolidate for days or weeks. In addition, in the short term there can be more randomness in price movement than most traders would like to admit. Some traders make money off of random movement, but it is rare. Just one more reason 90% of traders lose money.

@ said

Regarding nat gas and Pickens. I agree with him 100% that we have an incredible opportunity in the US to radically reduce oil dependance with the new methods of capturing nat gas. What I don't know is if the leadership of this country will grasp the vision in time and make it a top national priority. It would create many jobs as well. If the gov gets behind it, the nat gas stocks will certainly explode.

Which is related to your other question--oil demand in the developing markets is tending towards deceleration with better fuel economy, etc. But there is so much oil growth demand in the developing world, hard to say which will win out. The abiotic theory of the Russians is very interesting. And Brazil has an amazing biofuel infrastructure, and now new deep water discoveries--it will be a major energy player in time. Iraq could make a major shift in supply as production comes back online. But the key again is timing. In the short-term I suspect military situations and hostilities could easily create another major oil spike before too long. Iran and the straight of Hormuz as just one example.