Posts by "qiman"

Regarding his short, very interesting info, thanks! Timing is everything-- I prefer to short only once I see a clear trend break, especially using the TF. Not many traders are good at picking exact tops or bottoms, I aim towards capturing a nice chunk out of the middle of a trend.

I've seen VIX mostly as a sentiment indicator for that particular day as well. As soon as the evening session starts it is often ignored, and then goes the other way for a day, two or three. Lately the market has pretty quick mood swings fairly often--choppy.

With the Euro short-term trading lately it goes back and forth from the market focusing on that the glass is half full, to the next day focusing on how the glass is half empty. Sometimes it is news driven, other times just a MOOD SWING. But medium-term deep down most traders realize that really nothing fundamental has changed with the Greek situation, to speak nothing of the festering problems in Portugal, Spain, Italy. And it would take a lot of time and politicking to work out a European equivalent of the IMF. There are major underlying problems which could lead to a crash; the trick is TIMING a short, it is very difficult to be right but way early!

VOTE:Yes, in Q4

Depends on the velocity of money. The rate of creation of new money is approaching hyperinflationary levels, but the banks are holding on to it, and it is not making its way into the economy--yet. When the velocity increases, inflationary pressures will increase. Quarter 4 is my best estimate as to when inflationary pressures force the Fed's hand. Yes.

One thing for sure, hoping and praying doesn't affect the actual behaviour of the market, it will do what it will do. Caps are nothing but resistance levels, and they may or may not hold, just like support. I didn't lose any money on shorts the last few weeks, but all of us have experienced that at some point I would imagine. Predicting is one thing, trading is another, and it requires careful observation of actual behavior, including quick trend reversals. And never forget the reality of Randomness, it is a bigger factor than most traders would like to believe.