Immigrants are loving USDCAD above 1.10, Homes 10% cheaper for the RMB funded cash buyers! Mortgage lending rules were made strict last year and this has tempered house inflation. One thing with Canadian retailers is they look for any excuse to raise prices and now they have it with the exchange rate being as such! I wouldnt be surprised to see inflation ticking up in a few quarters once data comes out.
Thanks Dave.. its always tough to pick a bottom as you say. My call was based on the yield differential on Aussie and NZ 10 year bonds being only 40bps, and under 4% price difference over 10 year bonds which no longer justifies the relative valuation. In any case after todays poor NFP, deflation is still in play which can depress the short term NZD yield outlook. JPY crosses looking vulnerable after NFP
With headlines like these its time for reversal esp with over aggressive rate hike forecasts on NZD that wont materialize fully ... AUDNZD safest to go long with 1.14 medium term target.
GBP getting close to the possible 1.62 area call a while back from AL. I'd think after the BOE's vote last night and todays no taper that GBP will falter again once the specs flip back to longs. It was not long ago we had a 1.47 target being floated around here!!
The collapse is looking more imminent as there is little real gdp/capital growth that can be found in the west, outside just increasing transactions/consumption arising from population growth. Another take on this from economist Robert Gordon's and his TED talk on "death of innovation, the end of growth".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYHd7rpOTe8
I think you need to take it easy on AL and educate yourself better. I have an MBA in finance, completed a PhD in a quant field etc ... but even I am humbled and learn stuff everyday in the markets during these wild swings. FX markets are driven by many factors but because of the high leverage used, positioning is key and so you have to respect the price action. There is always some logic to the moves in the short term!
Havent been active in jpy for a while, but it looks like USDJPY is eyeing the 92-93 area to me. Such a move together with a big figure S&P correction can give some buoyancy to the other currencies against the USD. Any thoughts from the Yen traders?
DaveO I've read that the yields on longer dated NZD bonds have been getting better relative to aussie ones so that supports your view. I'm thinking more along mean reversion (to say a 4 year average) given that australia is NZD's biggest trade partner... also watching AUDUSD carefully and the 0.94 level which can be the trigger for short covering.
AUDNZD testing multi year lows after NZD rate decision, around 1.1495 now. Shakeout looks to be near complete and looking for a several hundred pip reversal soon.
Try publishing this in the UK weekend papers: Traders bet BankofEngland will raise rates to 6.25% --highest since 1… https://t.co/GWXrTEAk4R(10 months ago)
Poor start to a slow market day as Ezone PMIs disappoint. Im still keeping an eye on the rare (-2%) USD-GOLD combo,… https://t.co/UyRzWsRbs7(10 months ago)
-5% YTD is not good, while -7% from the year highs can be tough. Gold traders have their eyes fixated on this for n… https://t.co/NV5UMKsfNo(10 months ago)
ما وراء هبوط الدولار مع الذهب و من منهما يتمكن الارتداد؟
موعدنا الآن في غرفة شركة إكس أم لجلسة الأسواق
https://t.co/Y7tD0RxCS2
@XM_COM (10 months ago)
Jobless claims > 300k before next FOMC meeting would be ideal for Fed to make up for any CPI upside surprise (10 months ago)
"Cook & Eat at Home" scheme may come next to defeat UK inflation... (10 months ago)
Earlier in the week gold selloff was attributed to smaller than exp China EASING. Metal is now holding v well despi… https://t.co/ZW9cmXTPWW(10 months ago)
How bitcoin halvingreduces bitcoin inflation below that of gold and how its "hardness" can beat every other asset & currency over time. Watch here.
كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
Latest Hot-Chart - Apr 09
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
View Hot-Chart..
With headlines like these its time for reversal esp with over aggressive rate hike forecasts on NZD that wont materialize fully ... AUDNZD safest to go long with 1.14 medium term target.