Posts by "rkkashmir"

Gold getting pummeled yet AUD and NZD remain at nose bleeds. amazing what they do four days premium.

@montmorency

Trading currency is not easy. I have read a lot analysis from different analysts. I find Ashraf to be one of the most "trustworthy". He is a diamond in the rough, a jewel. I followed his advice on the long USD/JPY and short GBP/USD trade. I nibbled a bit on the EUR/USD short, but I feel a lot of the bad news is already factored into EUR.

The sentiment is just all USD for now. Check what happened to NZD/USD on the NZ GDP #'s. There was a "shortfall" similar to what the US had earlier in the day. Yet USD rallied on both reports. AUD taking it on the chin in sympathy with NZD.

AUD just playing catch-up now with the pummeling received by EUR and GBP earlier this month. Those two pairs have, at least for now, stopped the bleeding and are trying to carve out some short-term bottoms here. AUD will receive some "support" due to the yield differential over USD, however, this is the "old news" carry trade from most of this year.

It appears to be a case of moving the "jello" around to support USD. First it was EUR and GBP. Now it is NZD and AUD. However, USD has basically stopped appreciating vs CHF and CAD. Once the jello (USD) is completed being moved around, it will weaken and the Dollar Index should begin to fall in earnest again.

I smell a reversal in the currency markets just around the corner. Anyone who had large profits for the year locked them by now, if not last week at the latest.

It may be a bit early on AUD/USD. However, it is my belief this USD rally is getting long in the tooth and is based on a miopic belief the FED will be raising rates in first half of 2010. The odds of this happening are slim and none. Once the market figures this out instead of simply buying USD for end-end-of-the-year pleasures, AUD will rocket to new highs. Until then, with the lack of liquidity, AUD/USD is at the mercy of market manipulators simply running stops.