EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
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we just reached 5.49 thats an intermediate support
from there a pullback at 5.4950-70
major support at 5.485-30
if that is the case then chfnok strenghning at 5.67. that represent the resistance
could not answer before i was on it and out
HERE IAM BUT U HAVENT READ EVERYTHING ESPECIALLY THE LAST SENTENCE;
"FOR THAT TO HAPPEN IT MUST NOT BREAK BELOW 5.4867-5.4877"
I STILL EXPECT A PULLBACK BUT OVERALL FOR 2010 ITS GONNA BE NOK STRENGHNING;
as for chfnok we ahve reached the target level with the pullback at the low of 5.4788 last night
now i think we are heading to 5.5050-5.5100
FOR THAT TO HAPPEN IT MUST NOT BREAK BELOW 5.4867-5.4877;
nokjpy strenghning at around the seventeen level.
the norwegian stimulus in the regional economic makes the arbitrage in favor of norway. then the commodities stimulus redirected to japan due to weakness in consumption in the uk and the us makes the krona more appeal to other counterparties.
but this strengh will appear to be temporarly because as i mentioned in the forum and i insist JAPAN is gonna unleash its potential. i know some analyst are pessimistic on japan economy but i maintain my view on the archipelagoes.
expect for this week some chf weakness against norway krona
my projection for today for chf/nok are
5.4814
5.4731
EXPECT A PULLBACK AT AROUND THE SECOND LEVEL.
forget about interst rate hike in the us for a while not because the situation is not going well as some expert say but because the us are in the dynamic of the pacific rim integration and they r financing other blocks intregration through the printing and issuance of debt.
when they will reach the equilibrium in pac rim according to their view they only the fed will raise rate in order to withdraw liquidity from the system and reinject it in the equity market worlwide.
Euro might become the carry trade lot for a while and it looks like central government are stepping towards this possibility through massive issuance of debt with high level or covered ratio. The engine is partly due to Freddie mac and all this government sponsored vehicule.
The risk and there it is come from the fact that even if the market has recuperated part of its loss the inherent market risk due to global imbalance and not subprime has not been eliminated. THERE ARE THE FONDATION FOR ANOTHER LAYERS OF MARKET RISK
RENDEZ VOUS DANS UNE OU DEUX DECENNIES.
tell me what u think of this. i wrote thsi in june last year and send it aco^mpanying cover letter to corp in edimburg and ashraf. that was my projection at june 2009.
I am a follower of Elliott wave theory on technical analysis. We had two market top, one in february 2008 at the thousand level and another one in january 2009 above the thousand level. At this point the effect of supply and demand at the macroeconomic and micro one played its entire effect. We haven't noticed a disruption on the supply side, well contrary producing countries such as South Africa haven't reduced their production even with the energy disruption problems that are gonna stay inherent for some years.
The impact of the EURUSD parity on the gold fixing has been noticed with the making of the second top. I am a partisan on the fact that gold price won't be subject of disruption on the supply demand side entirely but will be a factor of the evolution of the EURUSD. According to market wave pattern the parity will go the level of 1.32 before bouncing back to the 1.37 level. If that occurs the made of triangle or a range can signal us the apex point at which the parity will break below the 1.29 1.30 level. That will give me a shorting signal on the gold market and a flight to hedge positions. I will intend not to only pick up strong balance sheet, strong solvability ratio, adequate debt level companies but in order to follow the trend i will advice you to select Ultra short ETF such as the Proshare and goes long on prefered notes that are gonna pay more than holding the share.
I don't know the purpose of your investment vehicle if it is for holding position for third parties in sight of a consolidation in the, for instance, TSX exchange place or if it is for enhancing a return on investment.
To come back to the impact of the parity on the XAUUSD i am projecting a downward movement after the triple top that has been made last week at the 992 level. This represents the scenario number one. The second scenario represents the formation of a consolidation pattern that has begun at the january top and that gonna last till the fourth quarter before we enter in the last upward wave, the fifth one.
On the inflation matter which correlate the level of price of gold, i am more keen to choose the first scenario. The fact that inflation in asset prices won't be present at this time because the market hasn't yet absorbed the levels of market risks (due to depreciation of the illiquid and toxic asset, impact of the upcoming economic and not financial crisis in corporate evaluation...), my opinion goes for a period of time where global ressources and especially gold will deflate in term value.
On the macro side for the main commodities exporting nations, that will incurs some trouble in fiscal deficit which provide a direct consequences on their respectives currencies and local denominated corporate and government debt. The only concrete avenue for sustaining the gdp growth of this exporting countries within the scenario of a fall in gold value, will come from the USDYEN. It is hard for developped nations that have headed toward a zero interest policy to sustain it and so the japanese will prevail as a carry trade currency.
today, i correct triple top by head and shoulder
see the decorrelation between physical gold and paper gold.
my first financial market was from Stan Weinstein. i learned a lot through its reading and one thing stroke me when he said that "market is here to beat you" so one must find a way not to be busted.
Regulated or no regulated you me or anybody that is not aware of underway trend , countertrend must not apply for an account in FX. i used to trade in indices and forex is more complexed 'cause for instance datas and volumes are not centralized in one exchange such as shares. so action at 2-3 am european time from HK and auckland are to ponder for european session in london.
i am still learning the best way to trade with the good entry point in the market.
good luck and dont give up. Endurance and discipline
IF GAP THERE"LL BE IT LL BE DOWN
PLACE UR STOP LOSS
LETS WAIT TILL 10 THIRTY FOR THE DIRECTION