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Posts by "speculator"

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804 Posts Total by "speculator":
22 Posts by member
SPECULATOR
(LONDON, United Kingdom)
782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 24, 2009 15:48
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
well the dollar is being damanged by low rates and excess liquidity so reverse that and things reverse. relationships differ with time. its all about the the fed now so focus on that.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 24, 2009 15:23
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
its all about liquidity and macro conditions. so if us economic data is positive, this should benefit the dollar as it may encourage fed to reduce liquidity and increase rates, at least thats what investors may believe. this is positive for dollar and us market yields rise and makes higher yielding assets less appealing. as markets are driven recently by a cheap low yielding dollar, a flight from stocks likely due to higher yielding signs of the dollar and investors need cover dollar shorts.

the stock market is in part driven by the dollar and its liquidity. stocks do not move the dollar as the currency market is far larger in value. correct me if im wrong ashraf.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 23, 2009 20:37
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
ashraf do you still maintain your $1.57/e euro forecast to hit this year? how confident are you if you do?
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 20, 2009 20:57
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
i think the market will close down for the month. i was never this bearish on stocks in sep/oct but now i am
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 20, 2009 19:23
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
the pound is in big trouble and will be in bigger trouble next quarter. looming fiscal problems and highly possible risk unwinding in 2010 will have a huge potential impact on cable in particular.


and as far as gold goes, i keep saying that it is not wholly driven by the dollar therefore you cant say its a hedge against a falling dollar. gold is being driven by DEMAND by LARGE buyers not a falling dollar or possible collapse of the dollar.

central banks were small holders of gold and now they want to diversify their store of values. so gold can keep going up along with a rising dollar.

did gold go down today whilst dollar went up? Nope
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 20, 2009 13:58
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
xaron, how do you base your overvaluation of the dollar?

i refer you to a 20 year chart of the dollar index and PPP then quote on its valuation. QE will be only a short term variable as once they reverse most excess liquidity will be taken out of the system when the government sells bonds rather than buys. The dollar should be higher next year. Also note that the dollar is very bearish and short against more currencies. thinking that the dollar will keep falling is an emotional response. the reveral of the dollar likely to be very quick as risk trades rapidly need to unwind.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 20, 2009 2:10
In Thread: Where do you see Gold by year-end?
ashraf but that just a means of getting exposure. what i meant is its not legal tender. you cant use it to buy products or assets.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 19, 2009 16:50
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
xaron when i speak positive about the dollar i mean over time frames of at least a couple of quarters not in day/week trading timescales. i still remain bullish now more than ever. the dollar is very cheap
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 19, 2009 15:38
In Thread: Where do you see Gold by year-end?
gold is a useless currency. the world is electronic so gold cannot be used easily as a payable currency. its just a store of value.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 19, 2009 14:00
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
my recommendation to short cable the other day at 1.68 was a winner if anyone listened.
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