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804 Posts Total by "speculator":
22 Posts by member
SPECULATOR
(LONDON, United Kingdom)
782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 19, 2009 0:15
In Thread: Where do you see Gold by year-end?
i would not hort equitie here as i think there i more room up than down. also the ratio of bulls to bears is even which means the market can take more buyers in the current uptrend.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 18, 2009 21:40
In Thread: Where do you see Gold by year-end?
if you want decent year end targets on equities, commodities and stocks best to look at top ten financial institutions predictions and average out. their prediction back in jan for year end have all materialised. why? because they are so huge they jointly influence the market.

most banks predicted s&P to reach 1000 by year end and it did indeed. banks tend to be poorer in fx prediction becuase i believe its a market larger market with far greater quantity of players and supply/demand pressures including central bank controls.

speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 18, 2009 14:08
In Thread: Where do you see Gold by year-end?
i dont think the dollar is in a multi year decline
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 18, 2009 13:35
In Thread: Where do you see Gold by year-end?
The dollar will not plummet I can assure you. The dollar will not wholly move the gold market or oil. Demand/supply for the commodity will move prices NOT just the value of the dollar.

HSBC private bank outlook 2010:

Oil - positive
Dollar - neutral
Gold - neutral
Equities - positive
sovereign debt - negative
corporate - positive
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 18, 2009 13:10
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
i would be short cable at current levels as I think we will retest recent lows by year end.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 23:19
In Thread: Where do you see Gold by year-end?
i would not be a buyer or selling of gold right now. we have probably peaked for quite some time now. 1200 is my year end. Gold is pretty rubbish as an investment as is illiquid, hard to store safely and prone to popularity phases which runs in cycles. you're far better off investing in high risk equity investment portfolios for the longer term.

once central banks stop piling up on gold, the commodity will collapse and dollar will rally but not necessarily in that order. asset classes rarely go up in a straight line for 10 years in a row without a large lengthy (1 yr min) change in trend.

projections of 2000,3000,4000 are just market moving tacticts. jim rogers is one of the marketeers of gold right now.

gold has no reason to rally other than demand for holding increasing which is a natural reaction after a monetary system suffers a severe shock. this demand will not run forever, centrals will at some point in the near relax.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 20:31
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
qin, nobody is perfect and people do sometimes get things wrong. but ashraf has been calling $1.57/e for year end for a long time now and we almost hit this target and may even have a slight chance till year end. This was called when it was in the 1.30s.

there is a reason why ashraf has his position and is very well regarded in the business. he is also a very generous man which is a rare case for finance professionals.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 17, 2009 18:28
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
dollar index back above 75. we are clearly at a significant juncture as we have been flirting around this level of considerable time. the case for a dollar revival is probably still on the cards for elliot wave fans
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 16, 2009 13:54
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
cable remains risky.

Speculators and general view on cable seems to be bearish which could fire up a rally if market cant go any more bearish. Yet, the fiscal position in the UK remains extremely unfavourable and could spark a run on the currency. Therefore there is a tug of war for cable.

Watch the dollar index for possible signs for cable. Should we close below 75 today cable could climb higher.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Nov 16, 2009 10:11
In Thread: Where do you see Gold by year-end?
elliot wave is predicting a huge collpase in gold prices from q4 for 12 months coupled with a surge in USD. The theorists had a good run in predicting the recent rally and the bottoming in march.
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