Posts by "speculator"

nzvik a good chance of it all happening. but Dollar index still closing above key 75 support level. A clear break below may prove dollar negative into 2010.

But the dollar moved mainly because of the IMF this weekend. Furthermore stocks right now are being valued based on expected future inflation and the dollars role as a cheap borrowing currency. Therefore its all speculation and possibly a bubble which can easy reverse and catch most at surprise.

I dont think stocks can rally much without the fall of the dollar from here. But i sense a great deal of caution amongst the big boys. The short to medium direction of stocks will be mainly driven by the Fed and other central banks this time round which in turn will influence the dollar

citigroup closes cable long and takes profits! Cold feet for further gains?

the problem with contrarianism is that it cant help much in short term trading but can give you an idea of future movements and turning points but not much help with the timing.

i definitely am a believer of it as it seems to work well in markets. i mean who was bullish on stocks early 2009? the markets seem to catch people by surprise quite often. its all about converting bulls from bears and vis a vis etc its a cycle. once overly bullish/bearish the market becomes saturated with bears/bulls, the momentum runs out of steam and investors start to think twice...bingo a reversal comes about. nothing ever goes in a straight line as we all know.

one thing we do know is that interest rates will be going up around the world and stimuluse will be lifted. this would negatively impact stocks and benefit the dollar as the carry trade rapidly unwinds.

you can tell gold is reaching a top its quite obvious eg overhype and unrealisticly high projections.

read the following article based on elliot wave. the analyst produced very accurate forecasts on both the fall and rise of US stocks in terms of timining and magnitude
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14798.html

Jim rogers is overly optimistic on gold and tries to move the market as he owns so much gold its quite funny when you hear him talk about the metal. i cant seem to find many people bearish on gold and that says something.

ashraf just saw the rankings well done.

based on average forecasts over next 12 months dollar index seems to have already formed a bottom at 75ish ?

but based on forecasts being not dollar optimistic as a whole, it could lead to a greater run for the dollar.