Posts by "speculator"

the point is the stocks are bolstered in pary by dollar funding as you know so they are interlinked. my best guess is that we have topped in US/European stocks this year so shorting dollar is not best option. Even Jim rogers believes in this and hes the most bearish on greenback.

the markets have been so optimistic about global recovery recently and stocks have barely moved higher in the recent months. downside risks in equties outweigh upside potential at current levels. what the markets are saying now is that they dont expect first part of 2010 to be any better than they have been last quarter. that is if you presume stocks to be foreward thinking by about a quarter or two. Plus, look at the financial stocks for a guide to financial sector confidence which seems to have declined and could be very dollar positive.

todays stocks market close in the US seems like the equity markets there have completely run out of steam. even the fed cant seem to generate any more energy as much of the days gains were erased despite feds promise of extended loose policy.

as again, todays dollar negative response was justs a knee jerk reaction against the dollar. expect a dollar rebound tomorrow. perfect opportunity to go long dollar.

as mentioned yesterday, the dollars decline was just a knee jerk reaction to positive US data. We are currently in a dolllar bull and equities downards correction. Gold may not fall just because the dollar is strengthening. short covering of the us dollar is happening and the extent of the dollars gains are still underestimated.

us stocks have broken their multi-month streak of gains which would technically imply a correction for certain investors. im affraid it will be another glooby fall/winter so watch out dollar bears!

strong US GDP would confirm a recovery in the economy which should provide confidence in corporate US and therefore future profitability and higher stock prices. This may have a positive effect on foreign stocks as they may seem like a better bet. Therefore traders/speculators will sell off the dollar and bet on foreign stock markets and sell the dollar short and by higher yielding and more risking investments. This may not happen every year but seems to happen now. Bad USD GDP may confirm US and possibly world is still struggling and reduce demand for foreign investments and typically capital will flow back to US dollar which is considered to be the place of haven when there is uncertainty. Its all a game really. Whilst it may or may not make sense, traders tend to follow each oher to remain profitable as its very difficult to go against a market unless u are an abosolutely huge speculator or dealing with a highly illiquid investment/currency.

Since the gold market is traded against dollar weakness to some extent, as the dollar weakens so does gold. This is just to maintain the value of gold in foreignt currencies.

regarding cable, goldman has made sterling more appealing along with some recent strong data. Im not confident this rally will last long but for the immediate term i suspect cable may go a bit higher. But the dollar bullish trend remains in tact. There may also be some large sterling orders for large invesments as many funds are taking advantage of weaker pound for real asset purchases in uk.

But the dollar is performing off recent lows.

And as i predicted, the best gains have been against the canadian, swiss and yen so far and not sterling for now.

i think the US data out today may be dollar bullish in the intermediate term as i think fed may tighten earlier than expected which may cause the dollar's appeal as a carry currency to reverse, cover dollar shorts which can cause a huge dollar rally into 2010.

The dollar rally remains intact. Today is just a knee jerk reaction. Tomorrow should be different