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Posts by "speculator"
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Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
I do not expect sterling to be the worst performer but perhaps the Swiss and Canadian over the next 6 months. I suspect goldman will be profiting from this reversal as they are fully aware of what most are not.
i certainly see parity. there is currently a war (due to uncertainty about interest rates) and about comments leaked from BoE officials on rates and QE.
Sterling is still in a bear market with record high bets on futures that it will fall. This can cause two issues as you could say that sterling has reached extreme levels of bearishness and has little way to fall. alternatively it could provoke further selling. as the market seems short on sterling, monetary fundamentals will totally move sterling.
if monetary policy signs exisit that tightening of rates and/or unwinding/ceasing of quantitative easing, a sharp rally of sterling will occur. but since i doubt that scenario, i believe this is a temporary bounce. but central bank actions are incredibaly difficult to forecast. so betting on the pound is betting on what the mpc at the boe will do not so much the fed.
asad, stocks will not follow earnings. you cant trade earnings. Its about many factors. Interest rates, sidelined cash, investor herding, technical picture etc. we can easily get to close to 2007 by end of next year. only becuase of excess liquidity from the fed and others. so watch out on interest rate moves as that is what will mainly drive stocks.
the USD index is still stubbornly holding at 75. Any breach below will form a new downside to the dollar index and postpone the coming dollar bull in to 2010.
My predicition of a weakening yen, strengthening commodities currencies is playing well keeping the 75 level supported for now.
If you guys are waiting for a fundamental (earnings) based adjustment to stocks you will be waiting for a very long time. We are not in a 1929 economic era!!!!
But of course, position yourselves for the greatest dollar bull market either ther end of the year or very early 2009.
we are have managed to keep above 75 for the usd which is critical support. if we break below we will get further weakness in the short term. infact, the dollars current level is amazing considering the amound of bearishness.
going long on the dollar with swiss franc will be one of the best bets over the LONGER term. simply because of excessesive devaluation this decade.