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Posts by "speculator"
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Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
So I would look at the dollar as a discounted currency based on its recent dumping. Can sentiment be any worse for the dollar?? Cant it be any better? the answer to that is 'sentiment can only improve for the dollar' the markets move on sentiment and herding behaviour. Who cares what it is really worth its what people are willing to pay. there cant be much worse news about the dollar and much of the damage has been done.
we are at the same juncture as in march when stocks hit bargain price and the masses were predicited S&P to hit below 500. So how many people caputured this rally in full?? not many at least not most fund manager as IT WAS NOT EXPECTED as 'things were looking very negative around stocks'
I will let you guys think about this debate................
I think the fed dont mind some weakness but they would fear a run on the currency.
We are currently at an extremely critical juncture for the USD index. If we break below 75 the dollar is in trouble and can possibly fall further towards 70. We are within 5% from a decade low for this index. You know what that means...a HUGE dollar rally will arise pretty soon. but the timing of this is tough but will be triggered on value. 2010 could be an absolute cracker for the dollar. but in the meantime play it safe as a reversal could come pretty soon.
i think there could be further strength for the euro against dollar in the short term.
So why has sterling fallen even though they have been doing QE for so long. Well because there was a shock by the BoE for a weak pound favour and extention of ultra loose monterary policy and quantitative easing where most media sources were betting on a quick win for the pound in the summer. now we know that they want the pound to fall so it will continue to fall untill fundamentals change. I see 1.56 this week. we are still weaker on the pound than this time last year. A speculative run on the currency will develop again if it has not already. i would suggest going long when the currency becomes undervalued ie less than $1.53 and that is with great cautioun and evaluation as it may undershoot about 15% from there.