Posts by "speculator"

the fed will care where s & P is thats why they wanted to do qe and bring down rates because they didnt want a 1929 depression with ever decreasing stocks. their next objective would be to bring some faith to the dollar so that they remain desirable currency and dominate the world.

interesting that GS is predicint a USD bull soon...as u all know im sharing their view as dollar becoming a bargain against many pairs and fundamentals mean nothing in cycles

USD has not YET breached support at 75. if it does expect 70. Improved unemployment figs in US giving support to dollar. A very critucal juncture for the USD.

Also, another point to make. Fundamentals do not always move the market. Look at the stock market rally since march. Is the extent of the rally fundamentally warranted? it certainly isnt on many value measures such as PE ratio.

So I would look at the dollar as a discounted currency based on its recent dumping. Can sentiment be any worse for the dollar?? Cant it be any better? the answer to that is 'sentiment can only improve for the dollar' the markets move on sentiment and herding behaviour. Who cares what it is really worth its what people are willing to pay. there cant be much worse news about the dollar and much of the damage has been done.

we are at the same juncture as in march when stocks hit bargain price and the masses were predicited S&P to hit below 500. So how many people caputured this rally in full?? not many at least not most fund manager as IT WAS NOT EXPECTED as 'things were looking very negative around stocks'

I will let you guys think about this debate................

nzvik, yes when everybody expects a correction it rarely comes why?? simple, if markets are somewhat efficient all information is priced in to today's prices. Only unexpected events (shocks) can move markets fast. Thats why I said september will not fall and neither will october. But it amazes me how much garbage is on cnbc about pros say pullback etc. i mean how do these guys remain as portfolio managers? or are they just trying to move markets in their favour to get back long at lower prices haha.

So why has sterling fallen even though they have been doing QE for so long. Well because there was a shock by the BoE for a weak pound favour and extention of ultra loose monterary policy and quantitative easing where most media sources were betting on a quick win for the pound in the summer. now we know that they want the pound to fall so it will continue to fall untill fundamentals change. I see 1.56 this week. we are still weaker on the pound than this time last year. A speculative run on the currency will develop again if it has not already. i would suggest going long when the currency becomes undervalued ie less than $1.53 and that is with great cautioun and evaluation as it may undershoot about 15% from there.