Posts by "speculator"

FX, sorry I dont study that pair.

redstone, having said that bullishness around stocks and bearishness around dollar remains at extreme levels normally implying a reversal. Therefore whilst we can expect a pullback it should be only minor unless some major unexpected negative shock comes about.

i personally would not be a buyer of stocks at current levels. currently the federal reserve is controlling the risk markets by their actions. Lets see what fed does in octover with is QE measures as this is HIGHLY influencial.

the dollar is pretty short out there which could cause short coverings rapidly pushing the dollar higher! I would not like to be a seller of the dollar at current levels buy a buyer.

Ashraf what is your thinking behind equities falling?why should they fall for now? valuations will not justify falls. but my wost case scenario for equities is very minor pullback say 5%

i also said that equities will not follow september history and they have not so far. i think we need to forget history sometimes and realise that this recession is different to the great depression and other recessions. it is a market that is prone to speculative bubbles of all sorts that will not break easily.

having said that, the fed will change the direction of equities by change of its monetary policy. if there is no more QE this year stocks may not have much higher to go but that does not warrant a large pullback.

said im not a technical analyst, but the point is with stocks, fund managers need to buy stocks from orders made by retail investors which are now starting to become more confident in buying stock based funds. So there is a growing demand for stocks from retail customers. how long this will last is unknown but there is no hurry in the market stopping to go any higher from here. We will certainly not get a US retracement back to march lows UNLESS some MAJOR shock happens. This could be a huge war as banking issues would only push higher most stocks higher due to monetary policy reactions of QE. retail investors are now starting to realise that money in the bank is a waste of time and understand money printing will have inflationary implications. again whether this should happen is irrelevant as it will happen if people speculate. therefore retail demand will push stocks higher for quite some time as they missed the spring/summer boat.

I work as a financial planner and have a good idea about high net worth clients.

US /Uk stocks are in a multi year bull. Traditional valuation metrics may not work as we are not in traditional monetary policy era. We have not had QE and low inetrest rates combination in UK/USA before. We can also have years of over-valuation which will lead to fair value when earnings boune back simply because of currency debasement.