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Posts by "speculator"

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804 Posts Total by "speculator":
22 Posts by member
SPECULATOR
(LONDON, United Kingdom)
782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 17, 2009 19:14
In Thread: GBP Trade Index 18-Year Chart
JPM are highly bearish for pound vs Euro and Dollar going into q4/q1. Incidently they agree with my belief that the pound will be used as a Carry currency and quite possibly is already been for some weeks. Their prediction is 1.50s year-end and 1.40s q1. But, I am very skeptical on such time-related forecasts. But it helps produce speculative attacks. Therefore, the carry trade is resulting in a breakdown in correlation of sterling with equity markets. I can probably say that because the stock markets are smaller than money markets which means carry trade activity may have a bigger influence on currencies.

speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 17, 2009 17:04
In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal
qin,

i think it is about time you started your own website or blog. You never know, it may bring you fame.

As ashraf keeps saying, this is just a website where you share ideas and analyse events/data to develop your trading technieques and thoughts.

Ashraf has provided many many good calls (shorter term) and you cannot expect him to be 100% right ESPECIALLY on longer trends as they are just estimates with far less chance of being accurate.

speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 17, 2009 7:38
In Thread: Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
FOMC increasing rates is HIGHLY USD positive do not discount this as currently dollar is being abused as a cary currency to fund higher risk investments. Once they increase, sterling will become the new carry currency and thats when sterling will fall heavily.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 23:27
In Thread: Unusual FX Action?
Sterling may be the next carry currency as soon as end 2009 and replace/compliment dollar carry. The BoE cannot make it any clearer unless that they trying to weaken currency by just talk . The possibility of lower interest rates which will hit short end of the yield curve to help this process. Investors are seeing this possibility and other fundamental issues with the pound thus risk aversion not playing with cable at this time.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 1:39
In Thread: Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis
guys, i could not help but post this video. this gentleman is obviosly planning to be a famous currency trader. ASHRAF get in touch with him and tell him to sober up will ya! dont think he is ready for bloomberg YET
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycsI7nOPfVE
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 1:12
In Thread: Unusual FX Action?
fxhandler i agree with your points but life is not fair fullstop. its a long way away till the dollar gets replaced as a reserve.

speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 16, 2009 0:42
In Thread: Unusual FX Action?
fxhander show me one economy that is not struggling.

Dollar is forming a short term bottom excluding yen pair.

Lets not focus on longer term.

Dollar is on a win-win basis due to possible risk unwinding (overvaluation in stocks) and/or US coming out of recession first. Remember, markets don't always reach fair value in short term. So don't discount the dollar being higher end 2009.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 15, 2009 23:29
In Thread: Unusual FX Action?
*dollar will rise
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 15, 2009 23:29
In Thread: Unusual FX Action?
thanks just saw the video. problem with this guy is he is a nutter and always negative about most governments and believes the world will collapse. but i dont discount all that he says but his assumption is central banks will print money to bolster stock prices even if stocks fall - this may not happen thus aid dollar. he is too old school and belives history always repeats. once fed ends QE stocks should fall due to overvaluation and no more reasons to rise short term. dollar will but more so against pound.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Sep 15, 2009 22:56
In Thread: Unusual FX Action?
fxhandler, think about money printing in a scenario where no finanancial losses were encountered then to a scenario where 30% of total wealth has fallen. which is likely to have an impact on inflation? stocks are also not all priced in dollars. why is european stocks going up if they are not printing euros?
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