Forum Posts by : speculator (Forum Member)

speculator

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 7, 2009 20:33

In Thread: USDJPY Cyclical Peaks

september will not be bearish for us stocks

speculator

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 7, 2009 20:15

In Thread: Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

Euro manly. I see near party as the norm n the future.

speculator

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 7, 2009 12:18

In Thread: Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

once economies start to recover, central banks may mop up the extra liquidity brought about by QE. They can do this buy selling government bonds to investors and in exchange for hoarded cash held at central banks or they can tighten monetary policy greatly which could then result in country debt downgrades.

The currencies of countries that have QE will greatly suffer in the LONG run against CERTAIN currencies. But note that Bank of Englands expansion is relatively more painful as it is a small currency unlike US dollar. So i expect fantastic long term bets against the pound as the effects QE may not have fully been priced in.

speculator

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 6, 2009 10:40

In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

qin,

people are allowed to have their opinions. Besides, I have been right many times and if you followed my short/long posts immediately you would have made money.

I think the problem with you Qin is that you read too many articles and base your views on them rather than your own understanding.

if we are all traders we need to behave like adults as this is very serious business. I rather people didnt behave like football hooligans on this site.

Qin, if you think money printing will always bring about domestic inflation think again. Secondly, you base all your justifications on single variables such as 'money printing' therefore u don't have strong enough justifications for your longer term predictions.

Yes, we will need a shock or mini shock to the world to have a pullback in excess of 10% we will not pull back based on just valuations as markets can easily remain overpriced for long durations. A shock can be a high oil price (2007) high interest rates, war, banking issues, below estimate corporate profits etc. Just because you feel prices are high (emotion) will not mean they will go down. life is not fair and can remain unfair even forever!

The velocity of cash is very low due to hoarding at central banks. This excess (part) liquidity is more likely to be removed from circulation in the future when stimuli are removed. Also bear in mind the amount of wealth that has been destroyed from the system eg real estate, corporate losses, stocks etc which is relatively small the amount of stimulus.

speculator

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 5, 2009 21:21

In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

and just to add, i think sterling will be the biggest medium-longer term loser of strength going forward and there is plenty of downside to come. The bank of england has more money printing to do and too high debt ratios, to sustain even current strength for at least 5 years to come. i do see parity in europound still to come. my prediction is regardless of global recovery.

speculator

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 5, 2009 21:11

In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

i am not even doubting that the dollar will depreciate substantially in the long run against certain currencies NOT all. but dont expect it to crash any time soon. It has fallen since march and has probably formed a support short term against euro/pound. we are still in a dollar rally and very likely to see further rallying continuation of fall 2008 into 2010.

speculator

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 5, 2009 14:25

In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

and by the way, i have a first class degree in economics and a masters degree in finance so i have an idea about markets as have studied them to perfection.

speculator

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 5, 2009 14:18

In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

qin, markets dont pull back for no reason there needs to be a SHOCK. and text book economics does not always play. look at japan, tonnes of QE and deflation with decades of pull backs. markets remain highly confused.

we crashed last september due to financial sector shocks. we need something of similar importance to have a pull back this year.

speculator

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 5, 2009 9:31

In Thread: VIX, Oil, BRICS & Sterling's Sell-Appeal

so far no signs of stock market pull back in UK/USA which is what I predicted. speculation has more power driving prices up than down. stocks mayl go down in a period where the majority are not expecting for example october/november. the fact that september is historically a bad stocks months means nothing this year as investors are increasingly worried about losses and had priced in levels for stocks in august for september. this is why us hould never listen to the media so much. some of them are con artists trying to move the market to their benefit eg. fund managers trying to bid stocks lower in an attempt to take a long position.this is more so true as many fund managers missed much of the rally.

but september has not finished yet!

speculator

Posted Anonymously

15 years ago

Sep 5, 2009 0:04

In Thread: Ashraf's Book: Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis

qin, obvious conclusion u dont need a phd in finance to work that out. but 10 years is too long for the market to price in accurately. use one year forward and he will be proved wrong. 10 years is not medium its long isnt it? i also think that he assumes that markets are fully efficient and can price things correctly. what the market expects long term doesnt normally materialise due to millions of reasons as conditions and variables keep changing. if he believes dollar will be replaced as prime reserve then why is short end so close to forward?

Posts by "speculator"