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Posts by "speculator"
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Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
clearly there are other factors that move stocks too. yesterday ftse advances despite boe gloominess.
it could be a sign that FED may unwind USD negative policy measures and therefore hike rates and less/stop debt monetization. This is obviously stocks positive.
traders are not the best at long term preditions, but much better shorter term. i dont talk short term as im not a day/week trader.
the dollar has been questioned for quite some time now it is nothing new. but i agree bearish pound.
a good dollar hedge will be buying israeli shekels now for medium term sell. do some research.
u cannot predict what the fed will do. us trade deficit is very imprtant and if this narrows over time it will support dollar from falling and even help it rise at best.
i am bullish because the dollar is currently cheap based on PPP and bank models. it has risen sharply due to a rush of dollar funds into international risk portfolios etc.
but if we do dont have a v shape recovery in the economic cycle which i dont think we will risk aversion is likely to come back in to fashion. we had a v shape in us during the start of 2000 but not this time.
i think fund managers will scale back risk positions as equities looking more and more expensive on the earnings side and as we go forward quarter and quarter earnings will look decreasingly impressive. some banks are only making sizeable gains on obvious trading patterns.
we will see a broad contraction in demand as central banks decide to hike rates and that is when the dollar will come back to haunt the bears
1.75 is ashraf's forecast and quite a few others so we'll see. but you must understand that current value of cable is overvalued and it will drift substantially lower in medium term.