Posts by "speculator"

redstone, its called overshooting and bubble formation.

looking at the last 12 months cycles and inflation adjusted earnings, we are mirroring the great depression cyclim but with worse comparable earnings. the only thing different is expansion in money supply which did not occur back then.

the last quarter or two has played out like almost text book economics in part. increase money supply and reduce interest rates and demand will increase along with inflation etc. this can be seen as earnings and commodity prices have risen with cash flowing into riskier assets. however much of the bank profits are due to trading and accountancy gains rather than demand for consumer products etc.

however, as we go forward there is likely to be less good news quarter on quarter and the high possibility of interest rate hikes and a stop in QE may reverse much of recent gains that helped keep down bond market rates. therefore i believe the market can still rally this quarter but if Fed or BoE change monetary stance markets can be worse q4 a benefit to the dollar.

obviously banks use different techniques like technical or fundamental or bit of both. otherwise if they use one method the variances of estimates would be less.

ashraf do still stand by your $1.75/ this year?

we should be monitoring the oil price not stocks as correlation is higher.

goldman today reversed its short bet on the dollar vs euro. meryl and morgan still betting euro will will be a good bet.