Posts by "speculator"

carclo, sterling's inability to break higher is likely to do with recently released data about q2 gdp contraction, qe uncertainty and goverment debt issues. we are likely to see cable fall down sharply sometime in the next 12 months.

qin the immediate reaction would be a massive flight to safety i.e. dollars and yen as risk based investments would start unwinding

if we break above 1.70 i will eat my dog! the pound is structually wrecked and overvalued against dollar. we are likely to see speculative attacks within a year or so.

at the end of the day, UK's fundamentals are probably worse than US in terms of potential currency issues in the shorter term:

fiscal deficits
government debts
rising unemployment
QE
non-reserve currency

I cant see how one could be so bullish for the pound regardless of green shoots. the green shoots have been priced in sterling. we have not had a real sterling crisis yet but it is likely to prop up this year or next

interesting..goldman is predicing dollar strength over the next 12 months purely on fundamentals, according to bloomberg, currencies.