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804 Posts Total by "speculator":
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SPECULATOR
(LONDON, United Kingdom)
782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
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speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 14, 2009 14:24
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
carclo, fx and oil more correlated. oil and gold is up and dollar down. Gold and FX moves are less clear as I believe the latter is manipulated and far less liquid market.
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 20:13
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
gold has very limited upside potential beyond despite what gold obsession hoarding bugs say. it will also make a poor long term investment at these levels.
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 20:10
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
please refer to long term gold price charts. it is a terrible hedge against inflation. its a better hedge against monetary collapse, and a falling dollar. a falling dollar though would not necessary cause general inflation apart from obvious oil inflation.
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 18:08
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
whilst low oil prices are good for economic recovery, it will trigger immediate risk aversion trades and a higher dollar which will likely feed through to global recovery in markets later as we got in march.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 16:31
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
Carclo,

Besides TA. We first need China to start declining which has not been the case. Deflation in oil prices will be key for cable downwards pressure than soley stock declines.

If you believe oil will reach $50 over the next month or so expect cable in 1.40s.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 14:38
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
key price movements to look out for is in oil for cable. Correlation has been 0.8 over last 12 months and higher than with S&P. This can be confirmed as stocks went are up quite a bit today yet cable remains in decline from open as oil remains under pressure.
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 0:41
In Thread: USDJPY 4-week Cycles
but the question is, will BoJ come in and sell the yen to devalue? thats why i expect the yen to initially be the biggest gainer and then the dollar.

we need to see china drift lower to see money come back to us dollar cash for its strength to highten, brics general sell off is not sufficient.
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Jul 13, 2009 0:03
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
i wanted ashraf's opinion
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 12, 2009 16:56
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
could argue it has be sold off due to technicals too and a double top with a lower high was seen recently. also if you believe gold is a good hedge against inflation you should revisit long term charts and im sure your conclusions will change. it is more likely to be a hedge against crises and credit bubbles more than anything.
SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Jul 11, 2009 18:08
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
If equities keep closing lower, the Yen is likely to be the initial beneficiary of strength followed by the dollar. The yen is looking rather expensive and it will come to a point where traders will not be prepared to go long Yen as upside would look less probable.

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