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804 Posts Total by "speculator":
22 Posts by member
SPECULATOR
(LONDON, United Kingdom)
782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
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SPECULATOR
LONDON, UK
Posts: 17
15 years ago
Jul 11, 2009 14:18
In Thread: USDJPY 4-week Cycles
yes usdjpy will certainly fall further in the shorty term as it is currently a highly fashionable risk aversion trade.
SPECULATOR
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 18:57
In Thread: CADJPY's Next Target
depends what u define deflationionary which is also another debatable definition. what i mean in this context is downwards pressure which comes from an asset being overvalued (overshooting fair value).
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 15:21
In Thread: Falling Equities Still Key for Dollar
Off the point a bit..but todays news of US Trade Deficit narrowing is also a dollar positive as typically this will reduce the amount of dollars needed to be sold to finance US consumption if the trend carries on. Whilst many importers will accept US dollars, it is still an important FX factor bearing in mind the deficits are normally HUGE on an annual basis.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 15:09
In Thread: CADJPY's Next Target
carclo, its also about irrational speculators overshooting fair value which resembles herding. H2 has a good chance of being just as volatile as H1.
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 13:57
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
It is overvalued. Especially when you consider the fiscal position of the UK government and money supply expansion of the BoE which are similar to US.

In my opinion the UK is more prone to speculative currency attacks that the US in this recession.
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 13:27
In Thread: When Will GOLD Hit $1,050?
ashraf, why has gold fallen so much?
Speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 13:05
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
just to add, although I know traders will see this as just an economic tool....but the PPP exchange rate for cable is current $1.51. If you dont know what this is do a google search....This recession is all about liquidating excesses, bubbles and bringing about fair value based on market forces. so we are bound to trade +/-10% of the PPP market (subject to no speculative attacks) in this recession. so we have clearly undershoot and probably overshot the fair price for cable this year. we are therefore trending back towards fair value and see where to goes from there.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 12:47
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
we cant deny that cable was given a very short term lifeline when bank of england decided not to extend QE this month.

we are in for a bad second half in riskappetite it seems.

ashraf, i like the fact that you dont like giving year end forecasts. i think in current circumstances they would not prove to be too accurate as we are not in normal conditions.
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 10, 2009 11:08
In Thread: How low will GBPUSD go in May?
-100% mojo
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jul 9, 2009 20:20
In Thread: Dollar Stability Choppy & Temporary
the trader is often vert accurate based on his predictions i have seen
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