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Posts by "speculator"
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Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
good luck
but what we can learn is that during periods of thin volume and liquidity, the market in question can move quickly and sharply by the action of a large trade.
i am an economist and finance person by education so i use combined knowledge.
you are asking a very difficult question about retest of march lows. but my best guess is no based on the fact that the lenders of last resort will ensure the banks and credit remain alive which helps confidence and risk.i believe the lows we saw were pricing in a depression meaning decrease in money supply etc. but we will certainly see a correction downards. my target would be 800 for now on s&p. fund managers are becoming more cautious with their risk allocation and are starting to question the sustainability of recent equity gains. we will have to wait for earnings statements to be issued this month to judge a definite direction.
outlook on us economy is bad as personal savings rates continue to rise amid a change of consumer lifestyle and this is a very important economic gauge. house prices are also not stablising adding to further bank failures and losses.
the dollar will make some gains in this potentially downards risk appetite trend but mainly against pound sterling as the currency remains heavily in question.
talking about manipulated markets, I'm amazed how the US markets ended up positive after being negative most of the day.
there is nothing wrong about having an opinion that it part of what this website is all about.
i would welcome a challenge.
quite right the extent of the sell-off was extreme and signalled 'oversold' this morning. it probably signals that sterling is looking rather too speculative and had rallied too far with too much optimism priced in.
apparently there was a lot of sterling sell off after 1.67 by macro funds. stop losses further triggered sell off probably overnight/morning. the speech from brown about world economy was also very bearish for uk and world. but i guess the sell-off magnitude was a shock.
but the million dollar question is..is this a correction for a move higher or a revesal of trend. we will need to closely moinitor equity (global, emerging) and oil price movements. caution is scaring the markets increasingly. sterling would certainly be one of the worst performers this quarter.
it was crystal clear cable was going to drop sharply from asian session (Equities - & Oil -)and dollar support from China.
is it too early to call a new quarter of downtrending in hunger for risk?
ashraf, perhaps that cycle you were predicting has started amid some delay.
thanks