Posts by "speculator"

ashraf,

i'd say we will have a poor run in equities in short term with increased risk aversion due to poor economic numbers, containment of liqudiity expansion by fed (SHORT TERM) and bearishness/cautious attitude on recent risk rally among fund managers. shorting commodity based currencies and higher yielders will be profitable with CAD one of them. we are also likely to see dollar/yen carry trades unwound with flows back to these currencies in the short term.

also, based on our debate about us dollar debasement, it is my belief that the dollar will depreciate against BRICS on a great scale rather than G8/G10. therefore, the USDx will not suffer as many believe in the longer term. jim rogers is highly pro BRICS and not G10 for obvious reasons and i would agree.

as it will take many years for the world economies to recover and for the US to reduce their recently increased savings rate (for consumption trends pre2007), large gains for oil and downside on USDX will be limited.

have a good weekend

carclo, yes a that could put some pressure on the dollar.

ashraf, yes i have. its where market participants can change fundamentals. i see your point now.

ashraf will we see (near) CAD1.25/$ this year?

cheers

carcle, i know all about soros and his speculative attacks .but speculative attacks dont last forever and come in different magnitudes. for example, the pound was speculated against heavily this year but how long did that last. natural market forces will then bring about an adjustment.

obviously thinly traded currencies can be heavily impacted through actions of even single speculators. but i cant see that happening against the usdx on a long term basis as economic fundamentals dont support a bear in my humble opinion.