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782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
cheers
here is cmc's eur/usd 4cast.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a9BePNYYI7g0
obviously thinly traded currencies can be heavily impacted through actions of even single speculators. but i cant see that happening against the usdx on a long term basis as economic fundamentals dont support a bear in my humble opinion.
cad nicely down vs dollar - perfect risk aversion trade
so the new quarter has started and already looking miserable in equities
but as you said, you can still trade using economics for longer term trends and thats why i think the US dollar index will run a bull and at worst stagnate
perhaps other factors are playing up for the gbp today?
longer term trends can be associated to economic changes. traders just react to changes in market conditions and speculate
there was a guy this week that lost 10m in oil trading for his company using unauthorised company cash! funny thing is that the company doesnt even take position on behalf of the company.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/e0ae2b2a-66f7-11de-925f-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fe0ae2b2a-66f7-11de-925f-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fuk
academics are normally risk adverse so they wouldnt trade.
i find it hard to discount the use of economics for LONGER term trends.
traders are traders and making enough money which is keeping banks alive too. but i think technical analysis is better for shorter trend 4casts. one cant use economic theory for day trades.
i note that you (and me) were almost sure of a 2 month cycle in equities and thats why we had a poll of how low we thought cable would reach in q2. we were soon to realise that we were in a massive equities bull dollar bear for q2 that shocked us all. had we looked at it fundamentally, we could used economic theory to justify a faster decline in the dollar but we didnt. so traders do misjudge but on average do well.
i am learning technical analysis but will use it with basic economics and fundamentals.