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Posts by "speculator"
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782 Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
since you are chief fx strategist, the recommendations you give.. are they used by the company to trade compamy cash on a speculative basis or and/or client use?
there are masses of dollar bears out there.
there was masses of oil bulls just prior to its collapse when i was predicting a sharp reversal.
i tend to look at markets (for longer term 4casts) in an economic way which seems to work. obviously short term the technical aspect is more likely to work.
we were taught that technical analysis is rubbish at Cass Business School during my MSc finance course so im really quite new to all this anyway and learning trader reactions, concepts and relationships. its all quite fun!
thanks so im not crazy then!
the dollar is due a reversal on the upside. watch and see.
i predicted a large and multi year fall in the dollar back in 2002 when i wrote my economics dissertation at university.
if i was doing the same again, i would be predicting the reverse!
as you can see, im not a trader but more of an economist so our opinions may be different.
as we enter H2 doubts over global recovery will increase sending dollar quite a bit higher. traders and investors probably over reacted to the more positive news last quarter and this is likely to lead to risk reallocation.
1996 to 2000 the USDX went up nicely and so did crude.
so in expecting the dollar to resume its secular bear adjustment, you are predicting higher oil prices, gold and inflation as a dollar hedge?
but research shows that oil and dollar relationship over the last 20 years has been statistically insignificant and there are other factors that explain the relationship. so whilst i agree this relationship has held recently it may not always do so if we are entering a new era of trading. research has found that oil price movements were mainly explained by demand/supply dynamics.
extrapolating trends especially longer ones will not always give you good insight as past performance is not a good indicator especially in this increasingly complex world we live in. for example, how may banks forecasted the dollar to collapse last year as US was in recession?
the highs of 2000 will not be surpassed so soon as one could argue that it will take many years to achieve if we are in a secular bull market.
i appreciate all the debt monetisation and deficits this is a dollar negative i dont disagree.
but i am still waiting for a brief answer as to WHY the demand for euro,pound and yen (components of USDx) will increase leading to a fall in USDX (everything else equal, ideally) if emerging economies do well and the rest of the world does not. is this a commodity priced linked concept?