Posts by "speculator"

whilst speculation against the dollar is with us, we can't discount the fact that US stock markets are trading in a strongly overvalued state based on historical PE. Therefore it is my belief that a downards correction in S&P etc will take place this year however it is not likely to be sharp but more gradual downtrend as demand dampens and panic selling will not occur.

but the issues is where does all the sidelined cash go? well if US treasury yields/bonds are favourable and stocks seem on a gruadual decline this year, the dollar will certainly be the most attractive short term choice due to satefy heaven and the usual inflows into the dollar when stocks decline.

as it is likely to be gradual, the dollar may not rise as quickly as it did in its last uptrend that started last year.

if you look at the dollar index it has been falling for a long time now. so we are not at a point where the dollar will keep falling but may rise slightly or trend sideways.

ashraf,

GBPUSD correlation with equities has fallen recently and I believe you predict it to continue to weaken as more of the moves will be explained by fundamentals with the countries.

just out of interest, how did the this correlation this quarter compare with the longer term figure.

thanks

china's talk about diversification out of the dollar certainly helped weaken the dollar among other dollar negatives today even though equities drifted lower in many markets.

ashraf, how do i buy your book.

Ashraf,

What would be your rock bottom forecast for this year or range. i know you say new highs will emerge but in the interim?

thanks