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Posts by "speculator"
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Posts by Anonymous "speculator":
now that stocks are looking expensive to current earnings we are bound to get downards pressure in the near future but when nobody knows as there is too much investor herding right now.
The investment banks are doing a very good job in propping up risk currencies by sending speculative client notes about how cheap the pound is and british real real estate in non-uk currency terms etc.
at the end of the day, the investment banks have a huge impact on capital and forex markets. i think spx target of 1000 (i believe is year end target for a few investment banks) will be hit sometime soon and correction would only then take place.
theres quite a mix of sentiment out there on equitues but far less so on currencies. Lots of Invetsment banks are predicting a sterling bull market but then again they are not usually right but they help investors speculate the price towards their target.
equities performance excluding emerging markets
banking sector shocks/financial scams/liquidity issues
Uk mortgage approvals
official house price moves
GDP
uk political instability
it seems that there has been just too much good date for the uk recently.
1 or more of the above need to become of a negative surpirse for a decent downtrend.
Ashraf would i be correct?
How comes you were so bearish on the Pound when you issued the pole so recently.
Cable seems to be maintaining strength.
I read something about ONS figures overstating UK high st sales over the last couple of years. This is clearly a negative for sterling.
the dollar has not benefited too greatly lately against sterling as you predected.
do u agree with some currency strategists that cable could fall below 1.35 if we fall in to a deep bear market with new lows assumung no signs of worsening economic data. Not sure if that could be a possible set of assumptions.....
i think the news sent mild shockwaves around the world as it goes against the bullish news recently cascaded that has supported this bull market.
cable did fall today probably due to BoE and equity liquidation.
today was pretty vital in setting the short term market trends.
the rally has certainly paused and correction is on its way down.
the markets have priced equities at optimistic levels with PEs historically high for such earnings.
pound should weaken into summer although i think 1.44 is my min target over the next 30 days. however, we cannot forecast as only news and therefore flows will move cable.
key things to look out for is:
rate of increase in unemployment
uk bank related issues
mortgage lending
mainly stock market performance as financial markets in uk represent the bulk of demand for the pound i believe