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Posts by "stationdealer"
750 Posts Total by "stationdealer":
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Posts by Anonymous "stationdealer":
RBA leave rates on hold at 4.5%
Statement highlights: Euro growth uncertain and pressure still on EZ banks; US labour market recovery slow; growth in China moderating; inflation in upper half of target zone; policy appropriate for moment
Chinese property market at beginning of collapse:http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aA9Y5VxWh9lw&pos=4
New Japanese FinMin watching stock and FX markets closely
Australian May balance goods and services +AUD1.6 billion
S&P futures were 1% lower in early trade following on from a 1% fall on Canadian markets and this led to an atmosphere of risk aversion in Asian FX markets, led once again by the AUD/JPY and EUR/CHF pairings.
AUD/USD opened at .8390 but after failing to retake .8400 in very early trade it fell below yesterdays .8375 low and only stalled when corporate bids entered the market around the .8320/30 level. The rebound on Asian stockmarkets helped the AUD recover pre-RBA decision. Range: .8318/99
USD/JPY tried on a few occasions to mount momentum for a test of 87.00 fuelled by selling in the cross pairs but the comments from the FinMin helped engineer a bounce on the Nikkei and the JPY crosses bounced as well. Ranges: USD/JPY 87.42/77, EUR/JPY 109.16/110.08.
EUR/USD fell under EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF selling and triggered stop-losses below 1.2490 before bouncing on the verbal intervention. EUR/CHF has remained heavy throughout the session, failing to bounce off its lows. Ranges: EUR/USD 1.2481/1.2555; EUR/CHF 1.3290/1.3356.
Cable has traded in a 1.5084/1.5155 range and EUR/GBP .8266/89.
Coal, Iron ore, onshore oil and gas covered only
oil and gas to be taxed at 40%
Iron ore and coal at lower rate
Details at 22:30 GMT press conference
Buy Assie, buy Gold again 1202-6 is perfect area again
Been a busy day here moving home, again I wont get much action as I am out again. Not back on desk completely till Monday. But do look out boys only really worse number for NFP will take Euro higher conversely a weaker gain may only get back down to 1.2280 and again short range and volatility may come back in play. And if its just small loss in job then forget 128 for now and just settle for 1.2698 and I hope to see some early signs over selling or a convergence short ranged.
Looks like traders got no clue at all where the markets headed but again its taking no prisoners. Traders throwing every thing they got in form of capital back on the markets, nice size volumes seen today. Option traders watch out, that Dollar is doom. Euro almost seeing demand back of number from around Jan this year. Keep VIX and COT Chart in mind........ I'd love to hear what Ashraf had to say about the ever so conflicted USDx 85 brokered today just before the close, will this go south now or you still on for 91.
US weekly jobless claims rise to 472,000; worse than expected
ISM manufacturing index falls to 56.2 in June from 59.7 in May, weaker than expected
US pending home sales tumble 30% in May from April as home-buyers credit expires
US equities recoup most of big early losses, end 0.3% lower at 1027
US Treasury yields rebound after making new trend lows; end at 2.95% from 2.88% intraday
Gold tumbles $45, closes at $1197.50; oil falls $3.00 to $72.70
EUR/USD traded nearly vertically today, vaulting 1.2400 in early US trade and the important 1.2500 level late in the session. The roots of the rally arent exactly clear. The very well-entrenched correlation between the EUR and the S&P broke down utterly today. Whether the break is permanent or a temporary phenomenon, only time will tell. BoYAH!!!!
Weak US data is usually associated with risk off but today we saw the reverse as the dollar fell across the board. The dollar index broke important technical support during the morning and the euro broke similar resistance near the close, suggesting a medium-term dollar top/EUR bottom is in place.
Some suggest hedge funds were forced out of EUR shorts and gold longs today to fund positions in other markets. Others suggest that despite seeming calm in European money markets as the LTRO expired today, tensions remain that forced banks to buy euros in the market that they are unable to buy elsewhere. Others see weak US data as simply making the dollar a less appealing safe-haven from European woes and fears of a Chinese slowdown than previously, while austerity puts Europe in a better light. Choose youre favorite cause Im baffled. I vote none of the above.
USD/JPY fell as low as 86.95 after the US data but talk of very large bids from semi-official Japanese accounts as well as rumors of BOJ rate checking helped set off a short-covering bounce. A rebound in US yields also contributed to a recovery in USD/JPY as the day wore on. We end at 87.65. Sellers are seen at 87.95/00 and 88.20/25.
EUR/JPY made a double bottom around 107.30/50 and closes at 109.73, helping sustain the euro rally late in the day.
Cable rallied along with the EUR, reaching 1.5190 toward the close, a modest improvement on 1.5165 London highs. EUR/GBP rallied, slowing Cables recovery. It ends t 0.8250 from 0.8215 US lows.
Commodity currencies rallied but lagged the pace. Global growth fears are being fueled by the rapid US slowdown and fears China could follow suit. If the US and China slow, how will a debt laden Europe fare? Not good.
USD/CAD ends down at 1.0590 from 1.0660 highs after the ISM data. AUD is at 0.8435 after finding support at the 8350/55 area post-ISM.
Hedge funds were EUR/CHF buyers today, covering shorts. Some suspected the SNB was in as well, though it seems unlikely theyd want any more EUR/CHF, thank you. We did a 1.3230/1.34 moonshot at one point and end at 1.3270.
EURAUD after days of testing, resisting and breaking 1.4070 barrier, the pair takes off and yes it has finally open ways for a leg above higher than May's high after testing it early in the month. Above 1.4965 will confirm that May's retest. While EURCAD still firm broke 1.3135 barrier well in form which does firmly suggest that pair can easily test its 1.3676 68.1% retracement level. Though I disagree that we will see a run clearly up there, may well be a deep sell off from 1.3550 area. EURCAD along with CADJPY, GBPAUD, GBPCAD each yielded 400 to 900 points each over a period of 14-15 days. We can look for same pairs to shake off confidence in some bears.
http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/
How can I be so sure? Because the history of modern markets is a story of meltdowns. The stock market crashed in 1987, the bond market in 1994. Mexico tanked in 1994, East Asia in 1997. Long-Term Capital Management blew up in 1998, Russia that same year. Dot-coms dotbombed in 2000. In 2007 well, you know the rest.
And that was just the last 20 years or so. The stagflation of the 1970s, the Depression of the 1930s, the panics in the 1900s ... and back and back and back it goes, all the way to the Dutch and their tulip bulbs.
Read More.....http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/biz/international-business/Get-ready-for-the-next-Great-Crash/articleshow/6110342.cms
Umm, yes they were.
As expected, the 3-month refit provided sufficient to supply the liquidity needs as the market prepares for the expiration of the ECBs 1-year liquidity-provisions tomorrow.
There are lots of things to worry about in Europe but the ECB not supplying the market with enough liquidity is not one of them
Why Yes. The market is fixated on the maturity of the ECBs 1 year refi operations on Thursday when EUR 442 in funding will have to be replaced. The ECB had phased out its long-term refi operations over the last several months in an effort to wean European banks off of central bank life support. When the sovereign debt crisis hit its crescendo in May, the ECB reinstituted 3-month fixed rate refis with full allotment, meaning banks could borrow as much as they like.
So the net effect is that a one-year lending facility is being replaced with a three-month lending facility. Sounds like a tempest in a teapot, but thats what forex markets thrive on..
Things are fine for me so far. Yes, I am also watching 1040 in S&P and Aussie mining tax proposal by Julia Gillard tomorrow morning.
But then again I am getting skeptical about shorting US$ with NFP approaching.
What are your thoughts Fridays NFP?
Housing and Europe will remain drags on the economy but he expects the recovery to continue, he tells CNBC.