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Fearful of low liquidity ahead of Memorial Day weekend, fund managers cover significant portion of month-end requirements
Kuwait Investment Authority denies trimming European investments
ECBs Gonzalez-Paramo: Recent sharp moves in currencies not welcome
US GDP revised to 3.0% from 3.2% in Q1.
US weekly jobless claims fall 14,000 to 460,000
Bank of Portugal: Austerity will slow growth
ECBs Noyer: Euro at more normal level
Berlusconi: We have defeated speculative attack on euro
IMF: Greece not looking to renegotiate any aspects of agreement, including pensions
US sells $31 bln 7-year notes at 2.815%, bid to cover 2.88
Moodys: Greater confidence Portugal to make deficit target after austerity plan
S&P 500 rises 3.3%, US 10-yr note rises 15-bp in yield to 3.35% as risk aversion eases
Oil rises $3.20 to $74.70, Gold steady at $1212
It was a very choppy today on Thursday as the market reacted to headlines overnight that China denied it was shifting gears regarding investments in Europe. Prices retrenched in early New York trading in EUR/USD, slumping from overnight highs at 12343 to the 12202 at the New York options cut only to rebound shortly there after.
By the London close, EUR/USD was making new session highs and the rally extended as far as 12395. Some of the gains were blamed on thin markets ahead of the upcoming long weekends in NY and London while jawboning from ECB executive committee member Gonzalez-Paramo helped underpin the euro as well. Hedge fund short-covering of short-positions in risk assets was a key feature as well.
One of those risk assets was EUR/JPY, which rocketed today. It rallied as far as 11276 while USD/JPY zoomed to 9100. It stalled just shy of its 200-day average at 9103.
AUD flew higher as well today, putting a medium-term bottom in place technically, prompting heavy short-covering. The rally reached 8517 and we close near our highs. AUD/JPY was rock-fuel as well, jumping to 7750.
Cable edged above 14600, fueled by a snap-back in risk appetites. Funny how I was humoured Monday when I suggested here to buy pound on the dip and every one automatically thought I was crazy or emotional.
12415 is next resistance for EUR/USD overnight while Asian central bank offers are rumored above 12450, traders relayed late in the day. Look for very thin month-end markets Friday.
The ECB borrowed $1.2 bln from the Fed this week after not borrowing last week.
The BOJ borrowed for the first time since the lines were reopened, tking $210 mln.
The amounts are trivial but raise the question as to the institutions that feel the need to resort to these pricey borrowings.
Cost to lifting covers is getting high, that can mean markets are favouring further speculation or want out.
Do not forget NFP next week we will see markets in high range before jobs days and fingers crossed if the data is bad according to what i have been saying for the last 3 months data seems to be flawed, and if im lucky we will see weak US jobs figures and fundamentally that will leave room for Aussie and other weighted currencies to move higher for the month.
In case we do see jobs growing don't get all excited and jittery or start betting your life on it, as it will only last for a month till US debt shows early signs of extensions beyond measures, I'm expecting end of June all this will be over for near term market shift to take shape.
CATNIP in a earlier post have posted a Daily telegraph's article which got allot of people pulling double dip game face on M3 plunging to at fastest rates and the scares effect of liquidity will play a huge role in deflation deep with in the states of America where most are already going bust. The public exposure to debt will rise extremely, as government will have no choice but to extend duration on loan repayments, taxation and unemployment will rise, you would certainly not see interest rate rising within the next 2 year at-least, QE can only be implemented if a further call to cut rates is in the play book and few more things my mind can not recollect at the time. The only positive take on this is that US won't have to worry about either inflation or the Fed tightening significantly any time soon.
Fed has not looked at M3 in yearsNot sure they are going to start now it was banned by the Bush administration. I'm sure you are getting more than you bargained for.
Not sure for who or why but a US giant is leaning heavily on EUR/USD. It has fallen as low as 12204 so far. Next support of note is the 12180 level.
Looks as though day traders were expecting more Asian central bank dip buying to limit the downside but it looks as though they may have already have gotten their fill
Traders also mote solid buying in USD/CHF from a Swiss mega bank, helping ramp that pair to a fresh session high at 11652. A US custody name is involved on the buy-side as well.
Rumors of a Spanish downgrade continue to swirl through the markets, bouncing around like a chain letter.there have probably been three or four in the last 48 hours alone
EUR/USD is modestly pressured at the moment, unable to sustain gains despite some jawboning from the ECB, a downwardly revised US GDP report and denials by China and Kuwait that they are concerned about euro holdings. Even talk of euro demand at the fixing at months end isnt helping.
Objects in motion tend to stay in motion, I guess. EUR/USD trades now at 1.2235.
Very minor support is seen at 1.2220 with more at 1.2180 followed by the 1.2145/55 zone, the line in the sand
This is what happens when something as little as man's ego get best of his wits. People are so damn sure that this Euro is going down that they forget to see signs of a bottoming trend forming and not considering it as a buying opportunity. May's over! we've gotten range bound like in feb into march. 12160 12640 will play for now as a range till we see some up side around end of June.
Thank God someone plugged that mother oil gusher. Most people do not realise but this is a big big big BIG environmental loss and for country like US that used, delayed the issue as long as it has prolonged. Shame on them! for using accident/disaster/or whatever as excuse to let this continue, I certainly hope their motive was not that it would create some more contractual jobs so no need to call an emergency, cuz that's what I think the local governors and Obama should have called in. That would be very sad. And shame on BP for let this go by play by play.
The news that China is reviewing eurozone investments has been officially denied, as expected, resulting in a rip higher in EUR/USD that reached 12343. Plenty of sellers were seen into strength and the rally did not last long.
12130/50 remains the line in the sand while 12375 is important resistance on rallies.
Kuwait Investment Authority Denies Reducing Euro Exposure
Denied, denied, denied.
No change in investment strategy, KIA says.
Remind me not to invest with the KIA
US Q1 GDP Revised Lower To 3.0%, Claims Fall To 460,000
The core PCE price index, the Feds favorite price measure, was steady at a low 0.6%.
While the report is not particularly upbeat it looks good compared to Europe where growth is slow outside of Germany. Not much lasting market impact from this one, I suspect.