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Posts by "xaron"
548 Posts Total by "xaron":
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Posts by Anonymous "xaron":
I think the big guys are already short and we will need very bad news to push the Euro lower now for the simple reason that whatever worst cases have been priced in now. Any kind of good news could the Euro push up hard due to short covering and no new sellers. Long term big players could see those levels as good buying opportunity to scale in longs.
I can imagine that the US debts will come into focus next...
I know that I'm almost alone with that kind of thinking especially here... I still miss some Dollar pro arguments from pippedoff though beside the "fact" that the Euro is trash. ;)
Maybe we can discuss some deeper stuff. ;)
Pro Euro:
- ECB price stability mandate which is maintained very well by the ECB
- ECB can't print money like the FED does
- starting to become an alternative to the Dollar as reserve currency
Con Euro:
- PIGS debts problems where the single countries can't just print money or maintain their interest rates by itself
- political incompetence
- the EU doesn't want a strong Euro because of exports
- short time span since introduction
---------------------------
Pro Dollar:
- reserve currency
- single state problems can be maintained much easier by the FED
Con Dollar:
- incredible debts load, the US will not have a balanced budget the next decades
- money printing (QE)
- rates will stay low for a long time
- treasury bubble
- PIGS of the US *g*: California, NY, ...
- the US doesn't want a strong Dollar which hurts exports
Let me just say that NOW the Eurozone is in focus because of their debts. That will change again. The wheel will continue to spin and Japan and the US will be the next to be punished by the markets.
The EU will NOT break up and so won't the Euro. That's just a no go because it would be a real problem for the whole world. As the Euro is already the second most important currency it has become some kind of reserve currency and so the Central Banks already did diversify into it.
That's what I think and I would be very interested in more pros and cons!
Thanks.