EUR

had some spare time so done a simulation on 60% success rate with payoff ratio 1 and other reasonable assumptions, and here are the results.. ditto you need better success rate then 60% or higher payoff ratio (money management) to make money..


Starting Balance $100000
Number of Trades 100
Past Success Rate 60%
Payoff Ratio 1.0
Percent Return 2%
Percent Risked 2%
Math. Exp. 0.20
Math.Exp. Risked 0.40%
Win (%) 2.00%
Loss (%) 2.00%

Total Profit or Loss $2,020
Actual Success Rate 51%
Number of Profits 51
Max. Consec.Profits 5
Max. Consec.Losses 6
Total Profit or Loss 2,020
Lowest Account Value 94,667
Highest Account Value 116,885
Max Drawdown 22,218
Drawdown Time 92%
Max % Drawdown 19.0%
Reward-to-Risk Ratio 0.1

Simulated Account Activity Report

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100

Return 2,000 2,040-2,081-2,039-1,998 1,958 1,998 2,038-2,078-2,037 1,996 2,036 2,077 2,118 2,161-2,204 2,160 2,203 2,247 2,292-2,338 2,291-2,337 2,290-2,336 2,289-2,335-2,288-2,242 2,198-2,242-2,197-2,153-2,110-2,068-2,026 1,986 2,025 2,066 2,107-2,149-2,106-2,064 2,023 2,063-2,105-2,063-2,021-1,981 1,941-1,980 1,940 1,979-2,019-1,979-1,939 1,900-1,938 1,899-1,937 1,899 1,937-1,975 1,936 1,975 2,014-2,054-2,013-1,973-1,934 1,895-1,933 1,894-1,932 1,893 1,931-1,970 1,930 1,969-2,008 1,968 2,008 2,048 2,089-2,130-2,088 2,046-2,087-2,045 2,004 2,044 2,085 2,127-2,170 2,126-2,169-2,125 2,083-2,125-2,082

Equity 102,000 104,040-2,081 101,959-2,039 99,920-1,998 97,922 99,880 101,878 103,915-2,078 101,837-2,037 99,800 101,796 103,832 105,909 108,027 110,187-2,204 107,984 110,143 112,346 114,593 116,885-2,338 114,547 116,838-2,337 114,502 116,792-2,336 114,456 116,745-2,335 114,410-2,288 112,122-2,242 109,879 112,077-2,242 109,835 107,639 105,486 103,376 101,309 99,282 101,268 103,293 105,359 107,467 105,317 103,211 101,147 103,170 105,233 103,128 101,066 99,044 97,064 99,005 97,025 98,965 100,944 98,926 96,947 95,008 96,908 94,970 96,870 94,932 96,831 98,767 96,792 98,728 100,702 102,717 100,662 98,649 96,676 94,742 96,637 94,705 96,599 94,667 96,560 98,491 96,521 98,452 100,421 98,412 100,381 102,388 104,436 106,525 104,394 102,306 104,353 102,265 100,220 102,225 104,269 106,354 108,482 106,312 108,438 106,269 104,144 106,227 104,102 102,020

i gambled with the long position ..my entry was not that good @14440:) but i was thinkn there was lots of support from 14420-33area:( its ok as long as we hold 14415-20 i think the trade will make $..i was tempted to cover @14450 but thought we would atleast get a test on the .38%lol couldnt even test 144539=23.6%:(..but lets see if i can get back to 14450 there im covering until we take out 14453++:)..ok gl:) thanks jacek:)

Ash I beg to disagree.. the path of least resistance (trend) for EUR is still down.. now we just need to get back below 55dma after latest fake-out and then break 1.4320 so we can really start digging back towards sub 1.4000 again.. all this volatility in USD particularly against CHDF is surely telling us something here..

Regarding these subjects mo is
1. hedge funds are notorious low performers becuz of size..it's a given..
some hedge speculators can always have very good years..but averages are very small
for hedge funds, including many losing years lately..
private traders can trade circles around them % wise...this is a given and shud be known by all of you..

2. my 1 hr model, with its filters and some (personal to the trader filters) indicators is common floor traders strategy with some of the momentum ma's tweaked as they go for their individual plan for tp's acc. to THEIR money management. One object is to enter positions into the momentum run and set their BEFT (free trades) and accumulate as many as possible, each week. They add their filters and adjust for their particular timing on when they want to be down and when a tp on the system is met, then they TAKE PROFIT early. This is used also mt private traders and discuss their momo moves on other forums. Profit is profit and with the new normal fundyatmosphere, short profits are the norm and let PARTIAL run for long runs. I have had 3 over 240 pips runs from initial entry this year, but at the end they would be maybe 1/8 original position, with profit taken along way, acc. to the rules on where to take tp on a momentum tunnel run. Not that difficult when the tunnel can
show the very close stop that can be employed.

3. The 4 hr is a very efficient momentum runner which smooths the chop and will run very long trades
but will stop out a little later than most want, causing a 'close now or fly by instruments' dilemma, to be mastered internally, nerves.
The 4 hr has 9 years life with me and the last 5 years has been accurately tuned, tweaked and nurtured to make pips.
Brother Dave now knows my system well and has it on his chartz, the agreements on resistance/channel.tunnel moves is very congruent his system to mine. He enjoys a large % (at 90)of winning trades in 3 instruments I know about. We also discuss what % of the move we can get and match these numbers against 'par'.
The 4 hr is very user friendly, the 1 hr takes some seat of the pants vigilance.

4. I learned these trading systems employed in my grandfathers bank in Trinidad,, family retains partial interest, and I talk to the trading dept regularly and have a fx acc. there. Family being part of founding of current bank, a major Carib bank. (Trinidad rich in NG) uh huh.. Caribbean currency happenings are mostly utilized to balance each countries need to keep USD, Euro at good balance on the exchanges for tourists/commerce. thus buying more/less based on demand, our ole friend. But as sophistication reached... options, systems prevailed. I worked in this bank in currencies, after grad Univ of Miami, my birthplace, thus 2 citizenships. Mother was UofM professor,
no rub off on me tho, simple minded I am. I worked in commodities and currencies in NYC with major firm years back. Now totally private.

5. I don't need to market anything because I have managed to accumulate cash and assets last 20 yrs.
I like Jamaica, but not Jamaican. Have other biz interests around Carib and have stake in startup in PA as angel. Doubt it if you want, but dat how iz. Which brings up a point, big private trading account easier to trade than small accounts..10-100K. My trading friends make 4-8%/month of their account,
but even at 100K, that is only approx 5K/month income..w/o acc. growing!! Need more acc. dosh.
Always remember it matters whose money you are trading, OPM or YOURS. OPM take more chances.

6. You give WAY to much credit to the 'gangster' stop hunters unless you are on a bandit platform.
CB's don't sit and think how to 'trick' the market, they are using their model, which shud be 'trick free'.
They are grindstoned to eek profit, we can be in/out/sidelined. little jets.

7. Pair trading is as close to 'sure thing' as there is in market for private trader. I use 50% of time
when tunnels align both side. Very high % wins on those.

8. Take mucho time to calculate swap on, a/y for instance on your demo..

9. Money management makes the profits..find decent entry, mange the trade efficiently.

____________

btw, Dave's comprehension is very vast in markets and he likes fx now as virtual newcomer to it and scoring. It is his passion...an unnecessary endeavor financially...
my passion also..

forgive this breach, but since we touch around the seams on issues wanted to clarify..
as a caribyank I am by nature humble, but when trading we shud sit up and take confident control,
at risk of arrogance.

How abt concentrating on trading..and if you take issue on something I said re; fx, no surprise
but mho.

c u latr

only issue @the moment is regaing that 161.8% on the 2nd previous low-high retrc.not to mention i have 3bars that traded+closed below that level.risk of becoming resis+taking out the potential abc pattern:(..ok gl:)